BULDING UP DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR SCIENTIFIC PERSONNEL IN UKRAINE BY USE OF STATISTICAL MODELS (Pobudova stsenariyiv rozvytku naukovykh kadriv v Ukrayini na osnovi vykorystannya statystychnykh modeley)

• Authors: Vashulenko Olexandra S. , Gryga Vitaly Yu. , Egorov Igor Yu.
• Languages of publication: UK

Abstracts

EN

The article is devoted to studying and medium-term forecasting of the scientific personnel in Ukraine by use of multifactor regression model, with focus on change in R&D employment mainly through redistribution of qualified staff between economic activities and with consideration to possible transformation of the socio-economic model in Ukraine in the forthcoming three years. Most significant factors (indicators) are identified, which, if brought to control, enable for accelerating or hampering renovation of the scientific personnel: the share of GDP allocated for R&D, the ratio of compensation in R&D and the industry average, the ratio of compensation in R&D and the average in public administration, the ratio of compensation in R&D and the average in banking and financial intermediation sector, the ratio of compensation in R&D and the average across the national economy. Three development scenarios for the scientific personnel in Ukraine till 2012 are built on the basis of the constructed multifactor regression model (scenario 1 - moderate growth; scenario 2 - optimistic; scenario 3 - pessimistic), with measures of budgetary support to science, proposed specifically for each model. Results of the modeling allow for the conclusion that growth in R&D employment in Ukraine can only be expected through recruitment of new personnel, but this growth will only be feasible when proper working conditions in R&D are created and the ratio of compensation in R&D and 'competitive' sectors (finances and public administration in the first place) is changed.

Keywords

EN

R&D FINANCING; R&D INDICATORS AND MODELING; REGRESSION MODEL; SCIENTIFIC PERSONNEL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

Discipline

• SCIENCE_OF_SCIENCE: SCIENCE OF SCIENCE

• Publisher: National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, G. M. Dobrov Center for Scientific and Technological Potential and Science History Studies; Kiev, [e-mail]
• Journal: Nauka ta naukoznavstvo (Science and Science of Science)
• Year: 2010
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 28-39
• Document type: ARTICLE

Contributors

author

Vashulenko Olexandra S.

author

Gryga Vitaly Yu.

author

Egorov Igor Yu.

• Olexandra S. Vashulenko, Tsentr doslidzhen' naukovo-tekhnichnogo potentsialu ta istorii nauky imeni G.M. Dobrova NAN Ukrainy, bulvar Tarasa Shevchenka, 60, 01032, Kyiv-32, Ukraine

Identifiers

CEJSH db identifier

10UAAAAA08693