Consumption function estimate and consumption forecast
This paper studies the impacts of disposable income and financial wealth on aggregate household consumption. The considered time period ranges from 1996 to 2005. The results confirm that not only disposable income but also wealth has significant impact on consumption. Moreover, we show that the most appropriate proxy for wealth is the sum of monetary aggregate M2 and assets invested in the mutual funds. We also investigate the effects of the interest rates and further relevant variables. It turns out that these variables are not significant in the consumption function. The second main objective of this work is to evaluate the different consumption forecasting approaches. We show that the most accurate in sample and out of sample forecasts originate from a vector error correction model with the exogenous variables.
M. Senaj, Ekonomicky ustav SAV, Sancova 56, 811 05 Bratislava 1, Slovak Republic
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