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2005 | 8 | 2(27) | 83-93

Article title

Macroeconomic Conditions of Shares' Market Price Indicators


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The article presents macroeconomic conditions of share market price indicators. It analyses the character and intensity of relations between the chosen price indicators' levels in the year T and real GNP changes in the year T+2. The research included relationship between the average level of price indicators and the average level of consumer mood, labour market conditions and Fitch IBCA ratings. The research included the correlation of presidential cycle and the price indicators levels. The research resulted in constructing global indicator including the correlation. It has also tried to answer the question whether the difference between the opposite to P/E indicator and bonds' rating may be a good barometer of the future return rate from Standard & Poor 500 Index. In the research a strong correlation between the P/BV indicator level and the dividend rate in the year T and the real GNP changes in the year T+2 was observed. Therefore price indicators may constitute a proper barometer of the future business activity level. The price indicators are related to the consumer moods. The higher are the share prices of enterprises at the Exchange, the higher rating level, the better the labour market condition and the better current business operating indicators. It has been proved that the difference between the opposite of price indicator P/E and the treasury bonds ratings is a proper barometer of USA share market. Due to the specific macroeconomic character of emerging markets it is difficult to use that indicator in the emerging share markets group. The statistic and econometric methods were used in the study. The research included calculating mathematical average and correlation features. The exchange indexes characterising share market level came from the Morgan Stanley Investment Banking data base and from the Polish Exchange Gazette 'Parkiet'.







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  • E. Lon, Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu, Katedra Bankowosci, al. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-967 Poznan, Poland


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