The author aims at reconstructing Jerzy Lojek's explanatory vision of historical process. He builds the typology of alternative history according to two criteria: the method and purpose of analysis. According to the first one it is possible to distinguish 'shallow' and 'deep' alternative history. In the 'shallow' analysis a historian is only pointing at turning periods in the history, in the 'deep' analysis - he considers the alternative paths of development. According to the second criterion it is possible to distinguish 'axiological' and 'explanatory' alternative history. In the 'explanatory' one, the analysis of what could have happened allows to understand better what really happened in the past. In the 'axiological' kind of alternative history, a historian departing from the state of affairs estimated in his outlook, considers what kind of conditions should be satisfied in order to achieve that state of affairs. Crossing these criteria one can obtain 'shallow explanatory', 'deep explanatory' , 'shallow axiological' and 'deep axiological' history. In author's view, the alternative history developed by Lojek in his book 'The Chances of November Uprising' belongs to the axiological kind of historical writings.He considers there what political strategy should have been adopted by the Polish leadership during the 1830-1831 uprising to defeat Russia.