PL EN


2005 | 41 | 1 | 79-101
Article title

Model predikce výsledků voleb – alternativní přístup k odhadům volebních výsledků ve volebních obvodech

Authors
Content
Title variants
EN
A MODEL FOR PREDICTING ELECTION RESULTS - AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO ESTIMATING ELECTION RESULTS IN ELECTORAL DISTRICTS
Languages of publication
CS
Abstracts
EN
To provide reliable pre-election forecasts it is necessary to estimate the election results as precisely as possible in individual electoral districts. Such estimates are traditionally based on a series of pre-election surveys in the individual electoral districts. The article presents an alternative method of making pre-election estimates, which combines the results of national representative surveys and information on the spatial distribution of party support from the previous election, and the results of the model-based estimates are compared with traditional survey-based estimates. The article demonstrates the usefulness of the model-based approach and discusses the conditions that either support or impede the quality of model-based estimates.
Year
Volume
41
Issue
1
Pages
79-101
Physical description
Document type
ARTICLE
Contributors
author
  • T. Kostelecky, Sociologický ústav AV CR, Jilská 1, 110 00 Praha 1, Czech Republic
References
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
CEJSH db identifier
07CZAAAA03096356
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.6dc2adbc-3662-3c7d-87f9-2328b3438f11
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