POPULATION AGEING, SHRINKING-WEALTH HYPOTHESIS, AND WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS (A nepessegoregedes, a vagyonzsugorodasi hipotezis es a villaggazdasagi valsag)

• Authors: Mosolygo Zsuzsa
• Languages of publication: HU

Abstracts

EN

The ubiquitous population ageing in developed countries could become one of the decisive processes in the world economy in future decades. The study points out that the ageing process, exacerbated by the retirement of the “baby boom” generation, has long-term effects not only on the real economy, but on long-term tendencies in capital markets. It is essential for money-market employees and economic policy-makers alike to attend to these demographic processes. The signals from them show that money-market tendencies in the coming decades will differ from those of the last 20-30 years. Taking demographic considerations into account, it is possible the rapid expansion of the world's great stock markets will be interrupted and the very low rates of real interest on the developed markets will start to rise. The theoretical backing for these assumptions is the hypothesis of shrinking wealth. The study looks at the main arguments for and against this and then at the consequences within the pension system, while touching also on the demographic background to the present world economic crisis. For as the 'baby boom' generation steadily becomes inactive, so the risk of an unfavourable crisis scenario, of protracted stagnation, increases.

Keywords

EN

PENSION SYSTEM - DEMOGRAPHIC CONSIDERATIONS; POPULATION AGEING & WORLD ECONOMY; WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS - DEMOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND

Discipline

• ECONOMICS: ECONOMICS

• Publisher: Committee for Economic Sciences of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
• Year: 2009
• Volume: 56
• Issue: 10
• Pages: 866-889
• Document type: ARTICLE

Contributors

author

Mosolygo Zsuzsa

• Zsuzsa Mosolygo, no address given, contact the journal editor

Identifiers

CEJSH db identifier

10HUAAAA078822