THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL ECONOMY - DILEMMAS AND FORECASTS (Przyszlosc globalnej gospodarki - dylematy i prognoza)
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The article is aimed at showing the most important causes of the financial crisis of 2008 and highlighting its features which are similar to those of the Great Depression of the 1920s. The author presents dilemmas and forecasts of the global economy future development and emphasizes civilization-related changes of a revolutionary character in the global economy. In this context economic cycles were presented from the point of view of N.D. Kondratieff's theory. Modern technologies and the whole infosphere are what will certainly determine the future development of the global economy. Analyzing new tendencies within civilization-related changes, the author concentrates on the specific conditions which led to the global economic crisis in 2008. The present economic crisis is a speculative one and it is typical of a financial market. The author also highlights the disastrous situation on the American mortgage market and explains how it triggered the first stage of the credit crunch. The author used elements of the method of analysis and synthesis which enabled him making a conclusion that the present crisis would transform into an economic crisis and a recession.
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