ECONOMETRIC AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL AND REGIONAL FEATURES OF THE LABOUR MARKET OF POLAND
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In the given article the research of tendencies and condition of the regional labour markets of Poland for the period of 1995-2004 is made. The models of the moving average (MA) with intervention for the analysis of dynamics of unemployment rate in all districts (voivodeships)-administrative areas of Poland were constructed and the analysis of unemployment rate jumps after joining EU was carried out. The received estimations of parameters for intervention show different reaction of the regional labour markets to the changes of external conditions. The model of dynamics of the gross domestic product share of voivodeship was constructed, the existence of the various fixed regional effects and influence of lagged values on gross domestic product of voivodeship was shown. On the basis of results of intervention parameters estimations and fixed share of the gross domestic product in voivodeship the dependence was constructed that reflected the influence of a regional fixed share of voivodeship GDP and a level of its competitiveness on size of unemployment rate jump in regions of Poland since the beginning of 2003. Thus, it is possible to show, that the higher the regional fixed share of voivodeship GDP the lower was unemployment rate jump. In opposite, the more advanced level of region competitiveness stimulated the increasing of unemployment rate jump. Further, on the basis of the econometric analysis the factors determining the potential of labour markets of Poland in a regional section were revealed, also the influence of employment structure and enterprises specialization on the formation of regional total product was shown, the structural changes of potential of the regional labour markets potential were investigated. The results of the given research show the opportunities of modern statistical methods use for substantiation of the evident problems, for development of the strategic plans for coordination measures in the labour market both for the country as a whole, and individual voivodeships.
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