TO SUSTAIN A COLOURFUL WORLD. VISION FOR A SMALL NATION (Fenntartani a sokszinu vilagot. Jovokep egy kis nemzet szamara)
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The author expresses his gratitude towards the editors, who had made it possible that he may expound his thoughts as a professional outsider in this contribution. They may be interesting to the reader in that they reflect a special attitude close to that of natural sciences, hence they may offer answers to the different questions from an angle that differs from that of the other authors. Cultivators of some purified branches of natural sciences are in a relatively easy situation when they want to draw up a vision. For instance, today it can be exactly defined when the next solar eclipse would take place with the help of the heavenly mechanics, it can be predicted where the space ship circling our planet would enter the atmosphere. The spread of electromagnetic waves can also be precisely monitored, which, among others makes the production of sharp photos and the use of mobile phones. The social scientist is in a far more difficult position, who can, at the most, speak about guesses or even desires about his subject of study, and that too, with great uncertainty. Perhaps it is not accidental that the Delphi-method has spread which outlines the different scenarios of the future on the basis of the opinion and expectations of properly chosen experts. No matter what scholarly method is applied for predictions uncertainty remains significant. An example of major significance is the unexpected and rapid disintegration of the Soviet Union which was a veritable surprise for the entire world despite the fact that hundreds of Kremlinologists had been dealing with the future of that super power. Mitigating uncertainty is also important when a vision is drawn up differing from forecasting, it is not prediction but rather plans, hence it cannot depart from reality else it would become a pink fog and a nightmare. The author was led by this recognition when he attempted in this paper to group his ideas about the future around a scientifically well founded theory, the history of the development of the Universe. Some general principles can be worded on the basis of that history and have been valid for thousands of millions of years and presumably they would remain valid, therefore they may constitute the basis of the author's views about the future. He does not wish to create the false impression that his vision is unprejudiced and would not reflect his desires governed by the values he professes. The author attempts to support his thoughts with arguments of natural sciences, because this way he can control himself, at the same time he offers an opportunity for a patient discussion based on rational argumentation with visions based on different values. Therefore he briefly surveys the history of the Universe primarily on the basis of the French Jesuit anthropologist and philosopher Teilhard de Chardin (1980) and points out some basic regularities that apparently greatly determine that history. Next he attempts to apply those principles for outlining a national image of the future, which, as it will be seen, is necessarily rooted in the past.
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