IS IT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT CRASH? (Czy mozna przewidziec krach?)

• Authors: Oswiecimka Pawel , Drozdz Stanislaw , Kwapien Jaroslaw , Rak Rafal
• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

This article presents one of the most promising methods to predict the sudden changes in the stock market, namely the theory of log-periodic oscillations. The authors, in addition to the above theoretical basis method referring to the theory of complex systems and critical phenomena, show empirical evidence of the effectiveness of this approach in predicting both the bust in the stock market, as well as in the resources market. The examples (based on the analysis and forecasts) shown in the research confirm that self-similar log-periodicity with a parameter contraction lambda approx. 2 is able to properly describe the dynamics of the stock exchange on different time scales. What is more, the prediction, indicating a reversal of the uptrend in the stock market in September and October in 2009, was shown.

Discipline

• ECONOMICS: ECONOMICS

• Publisher: Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego
• Journal: Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
• Year: 2011
• Issue: 25
• Pages: 163-171
• Document type: ARTICLE

Contributors

author

Oswiecimka Pawel

author

Drozdz Stanislaw

author

Kwapien Jaroslaw

author

Rak Rafal

• ul. Radzikowskiego 152; 31-342 Krakow

• Instytut Fizyki Jadrowej PAN, ul. Radzikowskiego 152; 31-342 Krakow

Identifiers

CEJSH db identifier

11PLAAAA102621