EN
The article focuses on the analysis of the likelihood of escalation of ethnic and national conflicts to the level of armed conflict. Two basic causes of the escalation of conflicts are assessed: 1. the state's use of political and economic discrimination practices against members of ethnic and national minorities (part III), and 2. the minorities' drive to increase their independence and scope of self-government (part IV). The first two parts of the article deal with the issue of identifying ethnic and national minorities in Europe (Part I) and the world (Part II). The undertaken analysis falsified two hypotheses lately quite commonly accepted in political sciences, as to: 1) a growing number of ethnic and national armed conflicts; and 2) a constant tendency of national minorities to escalate conflicts in order to improve the situation of their own group and increase the scope of self-government. On the other hand the analysis confirmed the thesis that the likelihood of escalation of conflict to the level of armed conflict rises markedly in states with widespread conspicuous discrimination practices (socio-political or economic) exercised by members of the dominant ethnic or national group, as well as in states with a noticeable policy of explicit restriction by the government of participation of members of a group in political and/or economic life.