BUSINESS CYCLE IN THE ECONOMY OF POLAND. OBSERVATIONS DERIVED FROM MARKOV CHAINS (Cykl koniunkturalny w Polsce. Wnioski z modeli Markowa)

• Authors: Fic Tatiana
• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

The article concentrates on the attempt to identify phases, turning points and the character of business cycle observed in Poland during 1995 - 2005. The switch-on and -off Markov models suggested by Hamilton (1989) have been applied. The obtained results indicate that during slowdown periods growth rate amounted to 2%, while during business prosperity the economy grew at the rate of 5.5% per year. Three cycles, in which similar cyclic changes in individual consumption, exports and imports as well as in inflation, have been discerned. When capital formation activities and unemployment rate are examined, the analysis points to the operation of only one cycle.

Keywords

EN

BUSINESS CYCLE (POLAND); CONSUMPTION; EXPORTS AND IMPORTS; INFLATION; INVESTMENTS

Discipline

• ECONOMICS: ECONOMICS

• Publisher: Komitet Nauk Ekonomicznych PAN, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne
• Journal: Ekonomista
• Year: 2009
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 49-65
• Document type: ARTICLE

Contributors

author

Fic Tatiana

• Tatiana Fic, Narodowy Bank Polski, National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London SW1P 3HE Wielka Brytania

Identifiers

CEJSH db identifier

09PLAAAA061024