WOMEN'S PARALLEL CAREERS IN POLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IN THE LIGHT OF RETROSPECTIVE SURVEYS OF 1988 AND 1991. PARAMETRIC AND SEMIPARAMETRIC MODELING
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This analysis focuses on three parallel careers (means realized at the same time and influencing each other): family, occupational and migratory careers, which together constitute the biography of the individual. The most important question is concerned with the diversity of courses those careers can take within an individual. There are three main purposes of this article: to describe the range of interdependencies between careers (events from those careers), to specify the course of each career realized by an individual, and to identify causal mechanisms. Two types of models were selected in order to answer the questions outlined above: parametric models and semi-parametric models. The piecewise constant exponential model accounts for the parametric model and the Cox model represents the semi-parametric one. The parametric model allows for a description of a hazard function shape and the semi-parametric controls for causality mechanisms by including time dependent variables. All analyses are based on data from two retrospective surveys, which were conducted in Poland in 1988 and 1991. Data from both surveys are complementary and has been constructed a common database. Results confirm that parallel processes influence each other, however, in the case of Polish women before the transformation period this influence was rather small. Economically inactive women had a higher (ca 10%) risk of having a child compared to working women. The subsequent migration decreased the risk of having a child (ca 12%). When deciding about whether or not to have a second child, occupational situation was not significant; the subsequent migration had a small negative influence (decreased hazard rate about 5%).
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