HINDSIGHT BIAS AND ITS REVERSAL: WHAT WILL TIME REVEAL?

• Authors: Matúš Konečný , Viera Bačová
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This experimental study explores temporal characteristics of hindsight bias (HB). The relation between temporal placements of outcome-supporting antecedents and outcome probability judgments were examined in 10 forensic accident animations. Sixty-two students in 2 conditions assessed outcome probability before and after driver’s error were apparent from an animation. Hindsight bias only occurred in judgments after driver’s error was apparent, however reversed HB resulted in prior time-points. In certain cases, both effects were present within an animation. Presence of hindsight bias and its reversal in different time-points of a single unfolding event suggests that these effects might be results of the same sense making process. Possible explanations are discussed in framework of causal model theory and counterfactual thinking.

Keywords

EN

HINDSIGHT BIAS; CAUSAL MODEL THEORY; SENSE MAKING

• Publisher: Institute of Experimental Psychology, Slovak Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Studia Psychologica
• Year: 2012
• Volume: 54
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 251 – 259

Contributors

author

Matúš Konečný

• Ústav experimentálnej psychológie SAV, Dúbravská cesta 9, 813 64 Bratislava, Slovak Republic

author

Viera Bačová