HOW TO ANTICIPATE RECESSION VIA TRANSPORT INDICES

• Authors: Jakubik Petr , Kerimkhulle Seyit , Teleuova Saida
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance.

Keywords

EN

CASS FREIGHT INDEX; EXPENDITURES; SHIPMENTS; LOGISTIC GROWTH; ECONOMIC GROWTH

• Publisher: Institute of Slovak and World Economics and Institute for Forecasting, Slovak Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
• Year: 2017
• Volume: 65
• Issue: 10
• Pages: 972 – 990

Contributors

author

Jakubik Petr

• European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA), Westhafen-platz 1, 60327 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

author

Kerimkhulle Seyit

author

Teleuova Saida