PL EN


2012 | 60 | 8 | 791 – 814
Article title

JAK INDIKOVAT ZVRATY HOSPODÁŘSKÉHO VÝVOJE

Content
Title variants
EN
How to indicate change-points in economic development
Languages of publication
CS
Abstracts
EN
The first decade of the new millennium has brought to the world economy and to national economies several shocks and substantially increased the risk of uncertainty. The causes of these shocks varied during that period and stemmed from the mortgage crisis, the crisis in the banking sector or the problematic parameters in fiscal economies of individual countries, especially those in Europe. These causes were often interrelated, and, respectively, they followed each other in relatively quick succession. The article shows how to use the probit analysis to indicate the possible twists and turns in the development of economy based on high probability of their occurrence. Along with the probit analysis method, Koyck linear dynamic model with time-lagged independent (explanatory) variable is also used, which allow for setting the advance of those indicators that can affect economic development and mark the regime change-points.
Keywords
Contributors
  • Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Fakulta informatiky a statistiky, Katedra statistiky a pravděpodobnosti, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic
References
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.cejsh-0f5ed967-3a52-4bdc-956a-03df15bc0202
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