COST-BENEFIT ANALÝZA A RIZIKO V SOCIOEKONOMICKÉM HODNOCENÍ PROJEKTŮ

• Authors: Sieber Patrik , Jiří Hnilica

Title variants

EN

Cost-Benefit analysis and risk in socioeconomic evaluation of projects

• Languages of publication: CS

Abstracts

EN

The paper focuses on frequently omitted mathematical and statistical intricacies related to the risk quantification in the process of measuring the value of public projects and policies especially within the most prevalent context of cost-benefit analysis (CBA). First, it deals with the appropriateness of inputs into cost-benefit analysis usually expressed in terms of expected values rather than option prices. After discussion of theoretical findings and practical relevance it hastens to conclude that expected values are well-acceptable if all limited restrictions are properly taken into any considerations. Then it shows the practical problems in quantifying expected values of net social benefits based just upon point estimates and suggests applying Monte Carlo simulation to derive them instead.

Keywords

EN

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; RISK ANALYSIS; OPTION PRICE; PROJECT; SOCIOECONOMIC EVALUATION

• Publisher: Institute of Slovak and World Economics and Institute for Forecasting, Slovak Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
• Year: 2011
• Volume: 59
• Issue: 7
• Pages: 669 – 683

Contributors

author

Sieber Patrik

• Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, Fakulta podnikohospodářská, Katedra podnikové ekonomiky, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic

author

Jiří Hnilica