Możliwości diagnozy i prognozy koniunktury w handlu detalicznym

• Authors: CIok Alicja , Jerczyńska Maria

Title variants

EN

Possibilities of Diagnosis and Prognosis of Economic Situation of Retail Trade

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

Economic sentiment indicator in retailing summarizing the goods and finances turnover, indicates the permanent growth during the last five years. It may be treated mainly as a result of the increased number of the large trade units. The corresponding changes in indicator values (for example sales) do not affect inner consistency of business survey of Polish retail trade. By this consistency we understand concordance of assessments of actual situation ex post with forecasts, both provided by the suwy. The forecast range turned out only 1 month although the suwy questionnaire demands the 3 month forecasts. There are significant agreement of these forecasts with respective quantitative indices published by the Central Statistical Office.

Keywords

PL

Koniunktura gospodarcza, Prognozy gospodarcze, Metoda testu koniunkturalnego, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej

EN

Business trends, Economic forecast, Business condition test method, Synthetic indicator of economic activity

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
• Journal: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
• Year: 1999
• Volume: 63
• Pages: 35-46

Contributors

author

CIok Alicja

author

Jerczyńska Maria

References

• [1] Ciok A,: Trafność prognoz w badaniach testu koniunktury handlu detalicznego. „Wiadomości Statystyczne” nr 8/1998.
• [2] Jerczyńska M., Ciok A., Sokołowska K.: Koniunktura gospodarcza przedsiębiorstw handlowych — analiza 5-Ietnia. IRWiK, Warszawa 1999, mat. niepubl.
• [3] SPSS Base 8.0 Application Guide. SPSS Inc., Chicago 1998.