Yakist’ prohnozuvannia rezultativ vyboriv: miry tochnosti ta dzherela pomylok

• Authors: Yevhen Bolshov

Title variants

EN

QUALITY OF FORECASTING THE ELECTION RESULTS: ACCURACY MEASURES AND SOURCES OF ERRORS

• Languages of publication: UK

Abstracts

EN

The article analyses the most possible sources of errors in election results forecasting. Formal methods of estimating quality of prediction are studied. Most probable reasons of famous failures of election predictions during last 20 years are analyzed. The accuracy of election forecasting in Ukraine from 1994 to 2007 years is estimated in comparison with USA, Portugal, and Mexico. As a result, the author had developed recommendations on improvement of pre-electoral polls methodology and electoral forecasting models.

Keywords

EN

PRE-ELECTORAL SURVEY; ELECTION RESULT FORECASTING; MEASURES OF PREDICTION QUALITY

• Publisher: Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; http://www.i-soc.kiev.ua
• Journal: Sotsiolohiia: teoriia, metody, marketyng (Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing)
• Year: 2011
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 95-115

Contributors

author

Yevhen Bolshov

• National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy"; address: vul. Skovorody, 2, Kyiv, 04070, Ukraine