1999 | 63 | 7-23
Article title

Ocena działalności przedsiębiorstw przemysłowych na podstawie wyników testów koniunktury prowadzonych przez GUS

Title variants
The Evaluation of Industrial Companies Activity on the Basis of Results of Economic Situation Tests Carried on by GUS
Languages of publication
In the article, different ways of use of the results of business tendency surveys in manufacturing industry conducted in the Central Statistical Office of Poland have been presented. The survey conducted since June 1992 has been described: its scope, frequency, content of questionnaires, sampling method, grouping of results. Long enough time-series and good quality of results prove to use this survey's results in short-term analysis of the present and future economic situation. To evaluate quality of business tendency survey's results, comparison between qualitative information and similar quantitative indices (for sold production, employment and prices) and between diagnosis and forecasts (general econoinic situation, total and foreign demand, sold production, financial situation) have been presented. Additionally comparison of results of different business tendency surveys (industry — construction — retail trade) has been analysed. Results for selected groups of industrial enterprises (small — large, different industrial activilies) have been presented as examples of possible detailed use of business tendency surveys' results. The general conclusion is that quality of results obtained in the above mentioned analysis is satisfying. Although a tendency to present more optimistic forecasts than diagnosis was observed, trends are comparable. Quick changes of the Polish economy cause that enterpreneurs present better forecasts for shorter period (one month instead of one quarter). Together with the stability of the Polish economy this horizon should be longer. Correlation between comparative qualitative and quantitalive surveys' results is good enough (and becoming better with the stabilisation of the economy). Quality of results obtained for different groups of enterprises is comparable, better for more stable industries, strongly linked with domestic rather than foreign markets.
Physical description
  • [1] „Biuletyn Statystyczny GUS” nr 4/1999. Warszawa, maj 1999,
  • [2] Kokocińska M., Przybylska-Kapuścińska W.: Analiza porównawcza wyników badania koniunktury i statystyki ilościowej w przemyśle przetwórczym. „Studia i Analizy Statystyczne GUS”. Warszawa 1995.
  • [3] Koniunktura w przemyśle, budownictwie i handlu detalicznym — kwiecień-czerwiec 1999. GUS, Warszawa, lipiec 1999.
  • [4] Zagoździńska I., Walkowska K.: Ocena jakości wyników badań koniunktury gospodarczej prowadzonych w GUS w Polsce. Ref. na sem. Komisji Europejskiej i OECD nt. badań koniunktury w krajach Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej, Wilno, wrzesień 1998.
Document Type
Publication order reference
YADDA identifier
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