Spectral Analysis of Growth Cycles
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The aim of this paper is to analyse by means of spectral analysis cyclical changes in statistical indicators reflecting the development of Poland's economy in the period of 1975-2002. The dynamics of the aggregate economic activity is reflected by the General Coincident Indicator (GCI), developed by Z. Matkowski. It is a proxy to the non-existent monthly GDP statistics, calculated as a weighted average of indexes showing the output of sales volumes in five major sectors of economy: industry, construction, agriculture, transports, and trade, weighted by their yearly shares in GDP. The component series have been compiled from the official statistics. The paper is a follow-up study to our earlier research (Łuczyński and Matkowski, 1999) on the subject. However, this study brings new results based on updated time series and it employs another concept of growth cycle, which is now analysed in terms of growth rates rather than trend deviations.
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