IMPACTS OF ONGOING GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC TURBULENCES ON EXCHANGE RATES: A CASE STUDY OF THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

• Authors: Sokhanvar Amin
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This research investigates the impact of the 2022 Ukraine conflict and sub-sequent economic sanctions on Russian exports on global supply chains and energy prices. Utilizing daily data from 2022, this study employs time-varying Granger causality and DS-ARDL techniques to analyse the effects of these events on the foreign exchange market. The results reveal a significant relationship between energy price shocks and exchange rates, with the Australian dollar appreciating against Euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. The study suggests that while major consumers of raw materials and energy, like Japan and European nations, face adverse effects due to the conflict, Australia could potentially benefit due to its role as a primary ex-porter of commodities. These results have noteworthy implications for policymakers and investors, highlighting the need for strategic reassessment of geopolitical risks and their direct and indirect effects on financial markets and economies.

Keywords

EN

GEOPOLITICAL RISK; COMMODITY CURRENCIES; EXCHANGE RATES; ENERGY PRICE; AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

• Publisher: Institute of Slovak and World Economics and Institute for Forecasting, Slovak Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
• Year: 2023
• Volume: 71
• Issue: 6-7
• Pages: 405 – 427

Contributors

author

Sokhanvar Amin

• Cambridge Resources International (CRI), 1770 Massachusetts Ave Pmb 617, 02140 Cambridge, MA, USA

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3901-936

Identifiers

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31577/ekoncas.2023.06-07.02