Kształt krzywych obojętności w trójkącie Marschaka-Machiny

• Authors: Kontek Krzysztof

Title variants

EN

The shape of indifference curves inside the Marschak-Machina triangle

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

PL

Artykuł prezentuje wyniki badania nad krzywymi obojętności w trójkącie Marschaka-Machiny. Przedstawiono w nim nową metodę wyznaczania takich krzywych za pomocą ekwiwalentów pewności loterii. Najbardziej istotną obserwacją wynikającą z danych eksperymentalnych jest obecność skoków krzywych obojętności w pobliżu przyprostokątnych trójkąta. Skoki takie nie występują jednak w okolicy przeciwprostokątnej. Wynik taki świadczy, że zmiana zakresu wypłat loterii powoduje skok w jej wycenie. Ten psychologiczny efekt powinien być uwzględniony w teoriach podejmowania decyzji w warunkach ryzyka.

EN

This paper presents results of a study which shed new light on the shape of indifference curves in the Marschak-Machina triangle. The most important observation concerns (possibly discontinuous) jumps in indifference curves at the triangle legs towards the triangle origin. Such jumps, however, do not appear at the triangle hypotenuse. This points out to discontinuity in the lottery valuation when the range of the lottery outcomes changes. Focusing attention to the range of lottery outcomes appears thus one of the most important factors driving decisions under risk. The study has been made using a novel method of estimating indifference curves, which is based on linear interpolation of certainty equivalent values between adjacent points representing the lotteries under consideration.

Keywords

PL

Ekwiwalenty pewności; Krzywe obojętności; Modele podejmowania decyzji w warunkach ryzyka; Trójkąt Marschaka-Machiny

EN

Certainty equivalents; Fanning-in; Fanning-out; Indifference curves; Marschak-Machina triangle; Models of decision-making under risk

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
• Journal: Studia Ekonomiczne
• Year: 2016
• Volume: 301
• Pages: 137-150

Contributors

author

Kontek Krzysztof

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie. Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych (KAE)

References

• Abdellaoui M., Munier B. (1998), The Risk-structure Dependence Effect: Experimenting with an Eye to Decision-aiding, "Annals of Operations Research", Vol. 80.
• Bardsley N., Cubbit R., Loomes G., Moffat P., Starmer C., Sugden R. (2009), Experimental Economics: Rethinking the Rules, Princeton University Press.
• Becker J.L., Sarin R.K. (1987), Lottery Dependent Utility, "Management Science", Vol. 33(11).
• Birnbaum M.H. (1997), Violations of Monotonicity in Judgment and Decision Making, [in:] A.A.J. Marley (ed.), Choice, Decision, and Measurement: Essays in Honor of R. Duncan Luce, Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ.
• Blavatskyy P. (2006), Axiomatization of a Preference for Most Probable Winner, "Theory and Decision", Vol. 60.
• Bordalo P., Gennaioli N., Schleifer A. (2012), Salience Theory of Choice under Risk, "The Quarterly Journal of Economics", Vol. 127(3).
• Camerer C. (1989), An Experimental Test of Several Generalized Utility Theories, "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", Vol. 2(1).
• Chew S.H., MacCrimmon K. (1979), Alpha-nu Choice Theory: a Generalization of Expected Utility Theory, Working paper 669, University of British Columbia.
• Cohen M. (1992), Security Level, Potential Level, Expected Utility: A Three Criteria Decision Model under Risk, "Theory and Decision", Vol. 33(2).
• Dekel E. (1986), An Axiomatic Characterization of Preferences Under Uncertainty: Weakening the Independence Axiom, "Journal of Economic Theory", Vol. 40.
• Gonzales R., Wu G. (1999), On the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function, "Cognitive Psychology", Vol. 38.
• Gul F. (1991), A Theory of Disappointment Aversion, "Econometrica", Vol. 59.
• Harless D. (1992), Predictions about Indifference Curves Inside the Unit Triangle, "Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization", Vol. 18.
• Harless W., Camerer C. (1994), The Predictive Utility of Generalized Expected Utility Theories, "Econometrica", Vol. 62(6).
• Jia J., Dyer J.S., Butler J.C. (2001), Generalized Disappointment Models, "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", Vol. 22(1).
• Kahneman D., Tversky A. (1979), Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, "Econometrica", Vol. 47(2).
• Kontek K., Lewandowski M. (2013), Range-Dependent Decision Utility, ssrn.com/abstract=2307858.
• Machina M. (1982), Expected Utility Analysis without the Independence Axiom, "Econometrica", Vol. 50.
• Machina M. (1987), Choice Under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved, "Journal of Economic Perspectives", Vol. 1(1).
• Marschak J. (1950), Rational Behavior, Uncertain Prospects, and Measurable Utility, "Econometrica", Vol. 18(2).
• Neilson W.S. (1992), Some Mixed Results on Boundary Effects, "Economics Letters", Vol. 39.
• Tversky A., Kahneman D. (1992), Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty, "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", Vol. 5.
• Viscusi K. (1989), Prospective Reference Theory: Toward an Explanation of the Paradoxes, "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", Vol. 2.

Identifiers

ISSN

2083-8611