Barometry koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej

• Authors: Matkowski Zbigniew

Title variants

EN

Leading Indicators for the Polish Economy

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

This is a follow-up study to the papers presented by the author at the OECD meeting on leading indicators held in Paris on 17-18th October 1996. The paper presents several alternative versions of the composite leading indicator (CLI) for the Polish economy based on OECD methodology (adapted to local conditions and the available data), confronted with the referece cycle described by a synthetic indicator of general economic activity (GCI). All the versions of CLI are well corelated with the reference cycle, but the leads observed are quite short and not very stable. Adding some long lead variables increases the lenght of the lead in the composite index. Nevertheless, the CLI referred to here, under the existing information gap, can mainly be used for monitoring purposes. At the same time, the reference indicator GCI can serve both to evaluate the current condition of economy and to generate extrapolative one year forecasts.

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
• Journal: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
• Year: 1997
• Volume: 51
• Pages: 287-309

Contributors

author

Matkowski Zbigniew