Analiza zgodności między wybranymi wskaźnikami testu przemysłowego IRG SGH a indeksem produkcji przemysłowej GUS

• Authors: Stanek Krzysztof , Nilsson Ronny

Title variants

EN

Testing the Conformity Between the RIED Industrial Survey Data and the CSO Index of Industrial Production

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

This paper analyses the conformity between the RIED survey data on the Polish industry and the industrial production index based on official statistics. The analysis focuses on correlation between the business situation evaluation, reflecting subjective opinions of the survey enterpreneurs, and the actual change of industrial production volume. Four indicators of the RIED industrial test: a) current production tendency, b) future production tendency, c) general business indicator, d) capacity utilization, were cross-corelated with industrial production index at different leads and lags. The latter index was introduced in three forms: a) 1 month change, b) 12 month change, c) ratio to the trend. The analysis covered the period from September or November 1986 to May 1994. The results indicate that the RIED survey data are generally well correlated with the actual evolution of production volume. The highest correlation coefficients have been obtained for the survey data lagged by 11-14 months behind the production index taken as the ratio to trend. These findings suggest a considerable forecasting capacity of the RIED survey data, notably in 1-year forecasts.

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
• Journal: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
• Year: 1997
• Volume: 51
• Pages: 415-423

Contributors

author

Stanek Krzysztof

author

Nilsson Ronny