Problemy identyfikacji cykli koniunkturalnych
Problems in the Identification of Business Cycles
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The study contains a review, classification and evaluation of various procedures and concepts used in the identification and analysis of business cycles. The study includes floowing points: (1) introduction, (2) smoothing of the series, (3) cycle and trend, (4) reference cycle, (5) three concepts of measuring business cycles, (6) six variants f cyclical movement, (7) absolute vs. relative changes, (8) alternative divisions of business cycle into phases, (9) turning points, (10) conclucions. Different methods of identifying and measuring business cyclesmay result in different specification of turning points and amplitudes, as well as different assessments of the current condition of the economy. No single method can be considered as "the best" in the absolute sense. Empirical analysis of business cycles should apply methods and procedures adequate to the aim of research, the kind of data, and the assumed model of cyclical movement. The results of empirical examination of business cycles can only be interpreted in the strict context of methodological and theoretical assumptions underlying the analysis. Therefore, an explicit specification of such assumptions is the indispensable prerequisite to any analysis.
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