Predicting Urban Land Prices: A Comparison of Four Approaches

• Authors: Marko Hannonen

Title variants

LT

Žemės Kainų Miestuose Prognozės: Keturių Metodų Palyginimas

Abstracts

EN

This paper investigates forecasting accuracy of four different hedonic approaches, when vacant urban land prices are predicted in local markets. The investigated hedonic approaches are: 1) ordinary least squares estimation, 2) robust MM-estimation, 3) structural time series estimation and 4) robust local regression. Post-sample predictive testing indicated that more accurate predictions are obtained if the unorthodox methods of this paper are used instead of the conventional least squares estimation. In particular, the predictive unbiassness can significantly be improved when using the unconventional hedonic methods of the study. The paper also studied the structure of urban land prices. The most important attribute variables in explaining land prices were permitted building volume, house price index, northing and easting. The influence of parcel size variable and different indicator variables on land prices were much weaker.

LT

Nagrinėjama, kokiu tikslumu keturi skirtingi hedonistiniai metodai prognozuoja laisvų žemės plotų kainas vietinėse miestų rinkose. Nagrinėti tokie hedonistiniai metodai: 1) mažiausiųjų kvadratų metodas, 2) daugybinių modelių vertinimas, 3) struktūrinių laiko eilučių vertinimas, 4) lokalinė regresinė analizė.Post-sampleprognostinis testas parodė, kad tikslesnės prognozės gaunamos taikant netradicinius šiame darbe nurodytus metodus, o ne įprastą mažiausiųjų kvadratų metodą. Taikant netradicinius hedonistinius tyrimo metodus, gali gerokai padidėti prognozių nešališkumas. Darbe nagrinėta ir žemės kainų mieste struktūra. Aiškinant žemės kainas iš būdingų kintamųjų svarbiausi buvo leidžiamas pastato dydis, būsto kainų indeksas, sklypo padėtis. Sklypo dydžio kintamasis ir įvairių rodiklių kintamieji žemės kainoms turėjo daug mažesnę įtaką.

Keywords

EN

Land price; Hedonic model; Prediction; Robustness; Flexibility

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: International Journal of Strategic Property Management
• Year: 2008
• Volume: 12
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 217-236

Contributors

author

Marko Hannonen

• Institute of Real Estate Studies, Department of Surveying, Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo, P.O. Box 1200, FIN-02015 HUT, Finland

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Identifiers

DOI

10.3846/1648-715X.2008.12.217-236