Study of Guangzhou House Price Bubble Based on State-Space Model

• Authors: Eddie Chi Man Hui , Qi Gu

Title variants

LT

Guangžu būsto kainų burbulo tyrimas pagal būsenų ir erdvės modelį

Abstracts

EN

Previous literature has explored Guangzhou's real estate market bubble problem, by using the perspective of rent receipts to measure the fundamental housing value. Since there is high proportion of owner-occupied property in Guangzhou; and that the household income is considered a key factor affecting housing price level, this article is from the perspective of household income, by the present asset market model, it sets up housing price model that analysis of the bubble phenomenon, and uses the state-space model that can be estimated characteristics by unobservable variables. The article estimates the price bubble and analyzes the size of the bubble at different times. The housing price in Guangzhou from January 2004 to December 2008 is studied. The results concluded that the housing market bubble peaked in October 2007 at around 43% of the market housing price.

LT

Jau skelbtuose darbuose Guangžu nekilnojamojo turto rinkos burbulo problema nagrinėta pasitelkus gaunamos nuomos perspektyvą, siekiant nustatyti fundamentaliąją būsto vertę. Kadangi nemaža dalis nuosavybės Guangžu mieste užimta savininkų, o namų ūkių pajamos laikomos esminiu būsto kainų lygį lemiančiu veiksniu, šiame straipsnyje pasirinkta namų ūkio pajamų perspektyva pagal esamą turto rinkos modelį; sudarytas būsto kainų modelis, kuriuo remiantis nagrinėjamas burbulo reiškinys, ir pasitelktas būsenų ir erdvės modelis, kuris charakteristikas leidžia įvertinti pagal netiesioginius kintamuosius veiksnius. Straipsnyje vertinamas kainų burbulas ir analizuojamas burbulo dydis įvairiu metu. Nagrinėjamos Guangžu būsto kainos nuo 2004 m. sausio iki 2008 m. gruodžio. Rezultatai rodo, kad būsto rinkos burbulas piką pasiekė 2007 m. spalį, apytikriai prie 43 % būstų rinkos kainos.

Keywords

EN

Housing price; Income; Bubble; State-Space Model

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: International Journal of Strategic Property Management
• Year: 2009
• Volume: 13
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 287-298

Contributors

author

Eddie Chi Man Hui

• Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong

author

Qi Gu

• Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong

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Identifiers

DOI

10.3846/1648-715X.2009.13.287-298