Wskaźniki klimatu gospodarczego jako narzędzie oceny koniunktury

• Authors: Matkowski Zbigniew

Title variants

EN

Economic Sentiment Indicators as a Tool for Business Activity Appraisal

Abstracts

EN

The paper presents a set of composite indicators of economic activity for Poland based on qualitative data from business and consumer surveys. They refer to the concept of economic sentiment indicator (ESI) used in EU countries, but some alternative concepts proposed by the author are tested as well. Time series of the indicators have been calculated for the period 1994-2001, using four alternative formulas and two different sets of survey data. Autoregressive projections for 2002 are also available. Statistical properties of the indicators are analysed and business tendencies revealed by their evolution are compared with the actual economic developments, as reflected by GDP and industrial production index. The ultimate aim is to assess the performance of such indicators in business cycle analysis and their relevance for economic policy purposes. Some ESI variants proved to be very well correlated with the actual dynamics of GDP and industrial production, siinultaneously or with some lead. Regression equations give a good fit. Though our indicators reąuire further testing, some of them can already be used for monitoring and forecasting purposes. The analysis has indicated several ESI variants which seem most promising. However, the ultimate choice necessitates further observation.

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
• Journal: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
• Year: 2002
• Volume: 72
• Pages: 175-198

Contributors

author

Matkowski Zbigniew