PROJEKCIE POČTU EKONOMICKY AKTÍVNEHO OBYVATEĽSTVA V ZÁVISLOSTI OD ZVYŠOVANIA VEKU ODCHODU DO DÔCHODKU S VYUŽITÍM LOGIT MODELU
Projections of the economically active population based on retirement age postponement using logit model
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The following article presents results of projecting the size of the economically active population in Slovakia until 2025 in three scenarios based on the anticipated age of retirement (62, 65, 70). Using individual data from the Labour Force Survey and a regional demographic forecast for Slovakia and applying the logit model we estimated the probability of economic activity for subgroups of the population. Assuming the retirement age at 62 we estimate the size of the economically active population in Slovakia to culminate in 2013 and decrease onwards rather sharply. Postponing the retirement age to 65 anticipates only a slowdown of the decreasing trend while postponing it to 70 would allow the number of the economically active population to culminate at higher levels earliest around 2020. The share of older age groups and individuals with university education should increase in line with expected trends.
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