Ocena sytuacji przedsiębiorstw budowlanych na podstawie wyników testów koniunktury prowadzonych przez GUS
The Evaluation of Building Companies Situation on the Basis of Results of Economic Situation Tests Carried on by GUS
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Business tendency survey of constructing enterprises has been conducted by Central Statistical Office since July 1993. The sample contains 3,5 thousand of public and private enterprises employing morę than 5 persons. Every month enterprises respond the questionnaire conceming - among others — present and futurę economic situation, order books, value of production and financial situation of the enterprise. This year there was a bi-yearly investment survey added. Both surveys are harmonised with the joint harmonised EU programme of business and consumer surveys. At the beginning of the paper the evaluation of the survey is done based on the comparison of quantitative and qualitative data. Time series were seasonally adjusted with XII Arima method. The results of the correlations between diagnostic and prognostic qualitative data as well as correlations between qualitative and quantitative data for totals are presented in the tables below. In most of cases the results of the correlations madę for raw data are a little better than for data seasonally adjusted. It could be caused by the high seasonality of data for construction. It was also checked that the results of the correlation are better for prognostic data not lagged or lagged one month only than for data lagged two or three months although prognostic questions concern the futurę three months. It indicates that it is easier for respondents to make a prognosis for a closer future than it is asked in the questionnaire. The results presented above allow us to use business survey results as a good assessment of the economic situation of the Polish constructing enterprises. The trends of the present order books and forecasted production are compared on Graph No 1. They show the rapid improvement of the business tendency till 1997 and its rolling adjustment in the following years. Similar tendencies are noted for other variables for totals as well as for enterprises divided according to the sector of ownership or number of employees. In the First years of conducting the survey the situation of public enterprises was better than of private ones. Since the present year the better position of private enterprises could be seen. It might prove the greater ability of private enterprises to adapt to changes of economic situation. The results of the survey conducted by the Central Statistical Office confirm the tendencies observed in the recent years — the improvement of the situation till its stabilisation in 1997 and then the broke of the pace of the increase since 1998. At the same time, since 1998, the slow down of the increase of prices has been observed.
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