PL EN


2019 | 384 | 7-22
Article title

Monetary policy and its transmission channels in an aging population. A literature review

Content
Title variants
PL
Polityka pieniężna i kanały transmisji wobec starzenia się ludności. Przegląd literatury
Languages of publication
EN
Abstracts
EN
In recent years, an interest in the macroeconomic effects of the demographic change has been rising in many countries. We claim that changes in the age structure of populations lead – in a more or less direct way – to changes in the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. As the hitherto literature on this issue is not very conclusive, we aim to gather the findings from different studies and build a theoretical framework for future empirical analyses.
PL
W ostatnich latach w wielu rozwiniętych krajach rośnie zainteresowanie makroekonomicznymi konsekwencjami zachodzących zmian demograficznych. Zmiany w strukturze wiekowej ludności prowadzą – w mniej lub bardziej bezpośredni sposób – do zmian w mechanizmie transmisji polityki pieniężnej oraz w jej efektywności. W dotychczasowej literaturze tematu ścierają się różne poglądy. Ten artykuł ma na celu zebranie wniosków z wielu badań i zbudowanie ram teoretycznych dla przyszłych analiz empirycznych.
Year
Volume
384
Pages
7-22
Physical description
Contributors
  • Warsaw School of Economics. Collegium of Economic Analysis. Department of Economy I
References
  • Ambler S., Kronick J. (2018), Faulty Transmissions: How Demographics Affect Monetary Policy in Canada, C.D. Howe Institute’s Commentary, No. 506, Toronto, Ontario.
  • Angeloni I., Kashyap A., Mojon B., Terlizzese D. (2002), Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand? Working Paper, No. 114, ECB, Frankfurt am Main.
  • Bean C. (2004), Overview [in:] Global Demographic Change: Economic Impacts and Policy Challenges, A symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August 26-28, Jackson Hole, WY.
  • Bernanke B.S., Blinder A.S. (1992), The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission, “The American Economic Review” September, Vol. 82, No. 4, pp. 901-921.
  • Bernanke B.S., Mihov I. (1998), Measuring Monetary Policy, “The Quarterly Journal of Economics” August, Vol. 113, No. 3, pp. 869-902.
  • Bielecki M., Brzoza-Brzezina M., Kolasa M. (2018), Demographics, Monetary Policy, and the Zero Lower Bound, Working Paper, No. 284, NBP, Warsaw.
  • Blanchflower D.G., MacCoille C. (2009), The Formation of Inflation Expectations: An Empirical Analysis for the Link, Working Paper Series, No. 15388, September, NBER Cambridge, MA.
  • Blattner T., Catenaro M., Ehrmann M., Strauch R., Turunen J. (2008), The Predictability of Monetary Policy, Occasional Paper Series No. 83, European Central Bank, Brussels.
  • Borio C., Zhu H. (2008), Capital Regulation, Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy: A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism? Working Paper, No. 268, BIS, Basel.
  • Carvalho C., Ferrero A., Nechio F. (2016), Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism, “European Economic Review”, Vol. 88, pp. 208-226.
  • Cecchetti S.G. (1998), Policy Rules and Targets: Framing the Central Banker’s Problem, “Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review” June, Vol. 4, Iss. 2, pp. 1-14.
  • Dudley W. (2012), Conducting Monetary Policy: Rules, Learning and Risk Management, Remarks at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, New York.
  • Fujiwara I., Teranishi Y. (2008), A Dynamic New Keynesian Life-Cycle Model: Societal Aging, Demographics, and Monetary Policy, “Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control”, Vol. 32(8), pp. 2398-2427.
  • Georgiadis G., Mehl A. (2015), Trilemma, Not Dilemma: Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper, 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas.
  • Gerlach S., Smets F. (1995), The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries, Working Paper, No. 26, BIS, Basel.
  • Horioka C.Y. (2007), A Survey of Household Saving Behaviour in Japan, Discussion Paper, No. 684, The Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka.
  • Iacoviello M. (2005), House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle, “American Economic Review”, Vol. 95(3), 739-764.
  • Imam P. (2013), Shock from Greying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Working Paper, No. 13/191, September, IMF, Washington, DC.
  • Kantur Z. (2013), Aging and Monetary Policy, Bilkent University (unpublished).
  • Kara E., Thadden L. von (2010), Interest Rate Effects of Demographic Changes in a New-Keynesian Life-Cycle Framework, Working Paper Series 1273. European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
  • Kelley A.C., Schmidt R.M. (1996), Saving, Dependency and Development, “Journal of Population Economics” November, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 365-386.
  • Kilponen J., Kinnunen H., Ripatti A. (2005), Demographic Ageing-Policy Experiments Using a Life-Cycle Model, Mimeo, Bank of Finland, Helsinki.
  • Kim S., Roubini N. (2000), Exchange Rate Anomalies in the Industrial Countries: A Solution with a Structural VAR Approach, “Journal of Monetary Economics”, No. 45, pp. 561-586.
  • Krause S. (2004), Measuring Monetary Policy Efficiency in European Union Countries: The pre-EMU Years, Working Paper 03-11, Department of Economics, Emory University, Atlanta.
  • Krause S., Rioja F. (2006), Financial Development and Monetary Policy Efficiency, Emory Economics, No. 0613, Department of Economics, Emory University, Atlanta.
  • Li X., Li Z., Chan M.W.L. (2012), Demographic Change, Savings, Investment and Economic Growth, a Case from China, “The Chinese Economy”, Vol. 45(2), pp. 5-20.
  • Lindh T., Malmberg B. (1999), Age Structure Effects and Growth in the OECD, 1950-90, “Journal of Population Economics”, Vol. 12(3), pp. 431-449.
  • Meredith G. (1995), Demographic Change and Household Saving in Japan [in:] U. Baumgartner, G. Meredith (Eds.), Saving Behaviour and the Asset Price “Bubble” in Japan. Analitycal Studies, Occasional Paper, No. 124 IMF, Washington, DC, pp. 36-45.
  • Miles D. (2002), Should Monetary Policy be Different in a Greyer World? [in:] A. Auerbach, H. Hermann (Eds.), Aging, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy, Springer, Heidelberg, pp. 243-276 .
  • Modigliani F. (1970), The Life-Cycle Hypothesis and Intercountry Differences in the Saving Ratio [in:] W.A. Eltis, M.F.G. Scott, J.N. Wolfe (Eds.), Induction, Growth, and Trade: Essays in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 197-225.
  • Montes Caldas G. (2009), Reputation, Credibility and Monetary Policy Effectiveness, “Estudos Econômicos”, Vol. 39(3), pp. 673-698.
  • Oksanen H. (2009), Saving in an Ageing Society with Public Pensions: Implications from Lifecycle Analysis, European Economy, Economic Papers, No. 370, Brussels.
  • Peersman G., Smets F. (2003), The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area: More Evidence from VAR Analysis [in:] I. Angeloni, A. Kashyap, B. Mojon (Eds.), Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 36-55.
  • Price D.A. (2014), Will the Greying of America Change Monetary Policy? “Econ Focus”, Iss. 2Q, pp. 4-6.
  • Rasche R.H., Williams M.M. (2007), The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy, “Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review”, Vol. 89(5), pp. 447-489.
  • Rogers D.L., Toder E., Jones L. (2000), Economic Consequences of an Aging Population, The Retirement Project Occasional Paper, No. 6, The Urban Institute, Washington, DC.
  • Saizar AC., Chalk N. (2008), Is Monetary Policy Effective When Credit is Low? Working Papers, No. 08/288, IMF, Washington, DC.
  • Sims C.A. (1980), Macroeconomics and Reality, “Econometrica”, Vol. 48, pp. 1-48.
  • Sims C.A., Zha T. (1994), Error Bands for Impulse Responses, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper, No. 1085, Yale University, New Haven, CT.
  • Svensson L.E.O. (2009), Evaluating Monetary Policy, Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series, No. 235, Stockholm.
  • Taylor J.B. (1993), Discretion versus Rules in Practice, “Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Series”, Vol. 39, pp. 195-214.
  • Tenreyro S., Thwaites G. (2015), Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy is Less Powerful in Recessions, Discussion Paper, No. DP10786, CEPR, London.
  • Trichet J.-C. (2007), The Monetary Policy Implications of Ageing, Speech at the ABP Conference on Pension Diversity and Solidarity in Europe, 26 September, Maastricht/Heerlen.
  • Wong A. (2014), Population Aging and the Aggregate Effects of Monetary Policy, MPRA Paper No. 57096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Wong B., Tang K.K. (2013), Do Ageing Economies Save Less? Evidence from OECD Data, “International Journal of Social Economics”, Vol. 40(6), pp. 591-605.
  • Woodford M. (2003), Interest and Prices, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
  • Yoon J.-W., Kim J., Lee J. (2014), Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy, Working Paper 14/210, November, IMF, Washington, DC.
  • Yoshino N., Miyamoto H. (2017), Decreased Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan’s Aging Society, Working Paper Series, No. 691, ADBI, Tokyo.
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
ISSN
2083-8611
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.cejsh-d944648d-3622-422e-b1dc-e59f7146873d
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.