SOCIAL TENSION INDEX

• Authors: Ainsaar Mare , Nahkur Oliver , Makarova Marianna
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The COVID-19 pandemic, military conflicts, economic and energy crises, coupled with the rising activity of extremist groups, have significantly intensified social tensions globally. Systematic and proactive monitoring of social dynamics and risk factors is crucial for effective conflict prevention. The aim of the paper is to create Social Tension Risk Index (STRI), provide theoretical and methodological framework for selecting and validating relevant components for the STRI, describe principles of the normalisation of measurement scales, assess internal validity, and explain the weighting of variables. The development of the Social Tension Risk Index (STRI) involved both theoretical and empirical components. In the initial phase, a comprehensive review of the global scientific literature on social tensions was conducted, leading to the identification of potential stress factors. Specifically, the challenge was to identify appropriate empirical measurement solutions for each theoretical component. The suitability of these indicators for inclusion in the STRI was tested through both qualitative and quantitative methods. The final STRI is composed of 22 indicators, grouped into 14 social tension risk groups: life dissatisfaction, dissatisfaction with governance and leadership, limited agency and control over life, pessimism regarding the future, uncertainty, poor health, economic hardship, societal decline, experiences of discrimination, openness to misinformation, low generalized trust, intolerance, acceptance of violence, and societal inequality. Results show that risk level fluctuates considerably and display variation across social groups. The overall level of social tension risk in Estonia was low compared to the theoretical maximum. The Social Tension Risk Index (STRI) serves as a practical tool for monitoring societal conditions and analysing the sources of social tension. STRI enables detailed analysis of tension source factors across various social groups. Results showed substantial differences across age groups in both the STRI levels and the sources of tension. The index not only supports monitoring but also provides a foundation for future scientific research for understanding the dynamics of societal cohesion and the emergence of social tensions. Since 2022, the STRI has been officially employed to monitor social conditions in Estonia.

Keywords

EN

SOCIAL TENSION; RISK; SOCIETY; MEASUREMENT; SOCIAL TENSION RISK INDEX (STRI); ESTONIA

• Publisher: Slovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Social Sciences
• Journal: Človek a spoločnosť. Internetový časopis pre pôvodné teoretické a výskumné štúdie z oblasti spoločenských vied
• Year: 2024
• Volume: 27
• Issue: 2
• Pages: -

Contributors

author

Ainsaar Mare

• Institute of Social Studies, University of Tartu, Estonia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9275-0997

author

Nahkur Oliver

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9934-9135

author

Makarova Marianna

• https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7633-7374

Identifiers

DOI

doi.org/10.31577/cas.2024.02.631