Syntentyczne wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych GUS

• Authors: Matkowski Zbigniew

Title variants

EN

Synthetic Indicators of Economic Activity for Poland Based on CSO Survey Data

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

Seven altemative formulas of a generał indicator of economic activity for Poland, based on UE harmonized standards, have beea developed and tested in this study. All of them were filled with the CSO survey data for manufacturing industry, construction and retail trade, supplemented by consumer sentiment indicator provided by DEMOSCOP and by the Warsaw exchange share - price - index. The resulting time series of general indicator, covering the period from Nov. 1993 till Jan. 1998, have been analyzed in order to find the most adequate formula. As the result, three variants of the general indicator have been selected for further testing. The final, operational version of the indicator, designed for monitoring purposes, will be chosen on the basis of forthcoming analysis using XI1 - ARIMA procedurę. The latter can be applied at the end of 1998 when the available time series reach the minimum length required (5 years). Cyclical components of the generał indicator ZGG now developed will be confronted with the reference indicator GCI developed by the author to make the ultimate choice.

Keywords

PL

Koniunktura gospodarcza, Syntetyczny wskaźnik koniunktury gospodarczej, Badania ankietowe

EN

Business trends, Synthetic indicator of the business climate, Questionnaire survey

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
• Journal: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
• Year: 1998
• Volume: 61
• Pages: 75-103

Contributors

author

Matkowski Zbigniew

References

• „Badania koniunktury”, GUS, Warszawa 1994-1998.
• R. Barczyk, W. Łuczyński, Wskaźniki klimatu oraz odczuć ekonomicznych w gospodarce polskiej okresu transformacji, „Prace i Materiały IRG SGH”, t. 51, Warszawa 1997.
• R. Barczyk, Wartość poznawcza złożonych wskaźników koniunktury opartych na danych jakościowych, „Ekonomista” 1996, nr 4.