2016 | Vol. 11, No 1 | 41-55
Article title

Pulse of economy. Identification, diagnosis, directions of development

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Languages of publication
Samuelson and Nordhaus (2012: 436) claim that "There is no pattern in the type formulas, the trajectory of the planets or swing of the pendulum, which would be used to predict the duration and timing of business cycles. Rather, they resemble a change in the weather". Nogalski and Klimek showed that in the years 1995-2010, the Polish GDP was forming in a way that made it possible to describe it using a mathematical formula (2015: 302-305). Having done further research, the authors are trying to establish whether Samuelson and Nordhaus are right. In their search for the answer, they conducted research on the "rhythm" of the world economy, European economy and that of several European states, including Poland, basing on the World Bank (WB) data for the years 1983-2013. The paper presents the results of these studies and the results of the analysis of the development of the Polish GDP based on the Central Statistical Office (CSO) data for the years 1995-2014.(original abstract)
Physical description
  • The School of Banking in Gdansk, Poland
  • LeanQ Team, Gdansk, Poland
  • MNDS (2012), Średniookresowa Strategia Rozwoju Kraju, [English title: The Midterm State Development Strategy], Monitor Polski, poz. 882.
  • GDP GUS, Roczne wskaźniki makroekonomiczne, tablica: Rachunki narodowe - ESA2010,[Englishtitle: Annualmacroeconomicindicators, tableNationalaccounts]. Retrieved July 6, 2015, from
  • INV GUS, Roczne wskaźniki makroekonomiczne, tablica: Inwestycje, [English title: Annual macroeconomic indicators, table Investments]. Retrieved July 7, 2015, from
  • MNDS (2012), Średniookresowa Strategia Rozwoju Kraju, [English title:The Midterm State Development Strategy], Monitor Polski, poz. 882.
  • Nogalski B. & Klimek A. (2015), Sprawność administracji publicznej i ochrona prawa własności jako czynniki wzrostu PKB, [English title: Efficiency of public administration and protection of property rights as factors in GDP growth], in Elizabeth Mączyńska (Ed.), Modele ustroju społeczno-gospodarczego - Kontrowersje i Dylematy [English title: Models of the socio-economic system - Controversies and Dilemmas], PTE.
  • PwC, PricewaterhouseCoopers. Retrieved July 15, 2015, from pl/biuro-prasowe/2015/2015-02-10-swiat-w-2050.jhtml.
  • Samuelson P. & Nordhaus W. (2012), Ekonomia, [English title: Economics], Poznań: Dom Wydawniczy Rebis.
  • WB, The Word Bank. GDP (current US$). Retrieved June 5, 2015, from http://
  • WCEN GUS, Roczne wskaźniki cen towarow i usług konsumpcyjnych od 1950 roku, [English title: Annual price indices of consumer goods and services since 1950]. Retrieved June 6, 2015, from wskazniki-cen/wskazniki-cen-towarow-i-uslug-konsumpcyjnych-pot-inflacja-/ roczne-wskazniki-cen-towarow-i-uslug-konsumpcyjnych-w-latach-1950-2014/
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Publication order reference
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