PL EN


2014 | 3 | 2 | 150-172
Article title

Longer-Term Demographic Dynamics in South-East Europe: Convergent, Divergent and Delayed Development Paths

Content
Title variants
Languages of publication
EN
Abstracts
This article offers an overview of the longer-term migratory and demographic developments in eight South-East European countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Italy, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and Slovakia). The main research question aims to analyse the different demographic historical developments and to examine whether convergent or divergent processes are dominant. Over the whole reference period, the population size in these eight South-East European countries (the SEEMIG region) grew from around 100 million people in 1950 to 122 million in 2011. This is surprising, as the public image of the region is linked to decline and backwardness and to being peripheral. However, major differences in the demographic developments of the countries can be observed. Some countries, including Austria, Italy and, with some fluctuations, Slovakia and Slovenia, experienced constant population growth during the entire reference period. All other countries were affected by a decrease in population, as was the case for Hungary in the early 1980s, Bulgaria at the beginning of the 1990s and Serbia and Romania since the start of the new millennium. The fertility trend shows a convergence while the mortality trends (including average life expectancy at birth) prove to be divergent. The net migration pattern seems to follow a migration cycle concept which postulates a general shift from emigration to immigration as a consequence of a declining natural increase on the one hand and a growing demand for new labour on the other. Some countries show trends that do not yet follow this pattern, which might indicate that additional factors and interpretative models should also be taken into account. The long-term distribution of growth and decline in the region is quite diverse and underlines the need for differentiation and specific explanations.
Contributors
  • University of Vienna, Department of Geography and Regional Research
  • University of Vienna, Department of Geography and Regional Research
author
  • University of Vienna, Department of Geography and Regional Research
  • Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)
  • strian Academy of Sciences, Vienna Institute of Demography
author
  • Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna Institute of Demography
  • University of Vienna, Department of Geography and Regional Research
References
  • Abel G. J., Sander N. (2014). Quantifying Global International Migration Flows. Science 343(6178): 1520–1522.
  • Albani M., Callà R., Guarneri A., Piovesan S., Rattin C., Reynaud C. (2013). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in Italy. Country report developed within the project ‘SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects – Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies.’ Online: http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGHistoricalAnalysisItaly.pdf (accessed: 3 March 2014).
  • Böröcz J. (2000). The Fox and the Raven: The European Union and Hungary Renegotiate the margins of ‘Europe.’ Comparative Studies in Society and History 42(4): 847–875.
  • Böröcz J. (2009). The European Union and Global Social Change: A Critical Geopolitical-Economic Analysis. London: Routledge.
  • Böröcz J., Portes A. (1989). Contemporary Immigration: Theoretical Perspectives on its Determinants and Modes of Incorporation. International Migration Review 10(1): 606–630.
  • Braudel F. (1969). Histoire et sciences sociales. La longue durée, in: F. Braudel (ed.), Écrits sur l’histoire, pp. 41–83. Paris: Flammarion.
  • Brettell C. B., Hollifield J. F. (eds) (2000). Migration Theory: Talking Across Disciplines. New York: Analysis and London: Routledge.
  • Chirot D. (1991). The Crisis of Leninism and the Decline of the Left. Seattle: University of Washington Press.
  • Cukut Krilić S., Novak T., Jurišić B. (2013). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in Slovenia. Country report developed within the project ‘SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects – Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies.’ Online: http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGHistoricalAnalysisSlovenia.pdf (accessed: 3 March 2014)
  • de Haas, H. (2010). Migration Transitions: A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry into the Developmental Drivers of International Migration. IMI Working Paper 24 (DEMIG Project Paper 1). Oxford: International Migration Institute.
  • Fassmann H. (2009). Von jungen und alten Einwanderungsländern: Die Geographie der europäischen Migration. Mitteilungen der Österreichischen Geographischen Gesellschaft 151: 9–32.
  • Fassmann H., Musil E., Gruber K. (2014). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in the SEEMIG Region. SEEMIG Working Paper 3. Budapest: Hungarian Demographic Research Institute.
  • Fassmann H., Musil E. (2013). Conceptual Framework for Modelling Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market, and Human Capital Processes. SEEMIG Working Paper 1. Vienna, University of Vienna. Online: http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGWorkingPapers1.pdf (accessed 12 December 2014).
  • Fassmann H., Musil E., Gruber K. (2013). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in Austria. Country report developed within the project ‘SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects – Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies.’ Online: http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGHistoricalAnalysisAustria.pdf (accessed: 3 March 2014)
  • Fassmann H., Reeger U. (2008). ‘Old’ Immigration Countries. Synthesis Report. IDEA Working Paper 3. Online: http://www.idea6fp.uw.edu.pl/pliki/WP3_Old_countries_synthesis.pdf (accessed: 3 March 2014).
  • Fassmann H., Reeger U. (2012). Old Immigration Countries in Europe. The Concept and Empirical Examples, in: M. Okólski (ed.), European Immigrations. Trends, Structures and Policy Implications, pp. 65–90. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
  • Fassmann, H., Reeger U., Sievers W. (eds) (2009). Statistics and Reality: Concepts and Measurements of Migration in Europe. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
  • Förster M., Tóth I. G. (1997). Poverty, Inequalitites and Social Policies in the Visegrad Countries. Economics of Transition 5(2): 505–510.
  • Gárdos É., Gödri I. (2014). Analysis of Existing Migratory Data Production Systems and Major Data Sources in Eight South-East-European Countries. SEEMIG Working Papers 2. Budapest: Hungarian Demographic Research Institute.
  • Gödri I. (2004). A magyarországra bevándorolt népesség jellemzői, különös tekintettel a Romániából bevándorlókra, in: T. Kiss (ed.) Népesedési folyamatok az ezredfordulón Erdélyben, pp. 126–147. Cluj-Napoca: Kriterion Könyvkiadó–RMDSZ Ügyvezető Elnökség.
  • Gödri I., Soltész B., Bodacz-Nagy B. (2013). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in Hungary. Country report developed within the project ‘SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects – Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies.’ Online: http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGDataSystemsCountryReportHungary.pdf (accessed: 3 March 2014).
  • Horváth I., Kiss T. (2013). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in Romania. Country report developed within the project ‘SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects – Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies.’ http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGHistoricalAnalysisRomania.pdf (accessed: 9 December 2014).
  • Landry A. (1934). La Révolution Démographique – Études et Essais sur les Problèmes de la Population. Paris: INED-Presses Universitaires de France.
  • Lemaitre G. (2005). The Comparability of International Migration Statistics Problems and Prospects.
  • OECD Statistics Brief. Paris: OECD. Online: http://www.oecd.org/migration/49215740.pdf (accessed: 10 October 2014).
  • Lukić V., Marinković I., Nikitović V., Ostojić I., Penem G., Predojević–Despić J., Rašević M., Stanković B., Šobot A., Zvezdanović J. (2013). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in Serbia. Country report developed within the project ‘SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects – Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies.’ Online: http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGHistoricalAnalysisSerbia.pdf (accessed: 3 March 2014).
  • Mackenbach J. P. (2006). Health Inequalities: Europe in Profile. Online: http://www.who.int/social_determinants/resources/european_inequalities.pdf (accessed 28 November 2014).
  • Massey D. S. (1999). Why Does Immigration Occur? A Theoretical Synthesis, in: C. Hirschman, P. Kasinitz, J. DeWind (eds), The Handbook of International Migration: The American Experience, pp. 34–52. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
  • Melegh A. (2006). On the East-West Slope. Globalization, Nationalism, Racism and Discourses on Central and Eastern Europe. Budapest: Central European University Press.
  • Melegh A. (2012). Net Migration and Historical Development in Southeastern Europe since 1950. Hungarian Historical Review 1(3–4): 415–453.
  • Melegh A., Thornton A., Philipov D., Young–DeMarco L. (2013). Perceptions of Societal Developmental Hierarchies in Europe and Beyond: A Bulgarian Perspective. European Sociological Review 29(3): 603–615.
  • Meslé F. (2004a). Mortality in Central and Eastern Europe: Long-Term Trends and Recent Upturns. Demographic Research, Special Collection 2: 45–70.
  • Meslé F. (2004b). Écart d’espérance de vie entre les sexes: les causes du recul de l’avantage féminin. Revue d’épidémiologie et de santé publique 52(4): 333–352.
  • Monfort P. (2008). Convergence of EU Regions. Measures and Evolution. Working Paper 1, European Union Regional Policy. Online: http: ec.europa.eu/regional.../200801_convergence.pdf (accessed: 21 November 2014).
  • Notestein F. W. (1945). Population: The Long View, in: T. W. Schultz (ed.) Food for the World, pp. 36–57. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Pacheva A., Dimitrova D., Toteva D., Bakalova E., Yakimova E., Kostova M., Naydenova D. (2013). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in Bulgaria. Country report developed within the project ‘SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects – Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies.’ Online: http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGHistoricalAnalysisBulgaria.pdf (accessed: 3 March 2014).
  • Póczik S., Fehér L., Dunavölgyi S., Jagusztin T., Windt S. (2008). Nemzetközi migráció – nemzetközi kockázatok. Magyar Tudomány 2008/9: 1095–1107. Online: http://www.matud.iif.hu/08sze/07.html (accessed: 30 November 2014).
  • Portes A., DeWind J. (2007). Rethinking Migration: New Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives. New York: Berghahn Books.
  • Poulain M., Perrin N., Singleton A. (2006). THESIM – Towards Harmonised European Statistics on International Migration. Louvain-la-Neuve: UCL Presses Universitaires.
  • Rychtarikova J. (2001). Demográfiai átmenet zajlik Kelet-Európában? Is There a Second Demographic Transition in Eastern Europe? Regio 12(1): 111–139.
  • Skeldon S. (2012). Migration Transitions Revisited: Their Continued Relevance for the Development of Migration Theory. Population, Space and Place 18(2): 154–166.
  • Sobotka T. (2002). Ten Years of Rapid Fertility Changes in the European Post-Communist Countries. Evidence and Interpretation. Working Paper Series 02-1. Groningen: Population Research Centre.
  • Szőke L. (1992). Hungarian Perspectives on Emigration and Immigration in the New European Architecture. International Migration Review 26(2): 305–323.
  • Thompson W. S. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology 34(6): 959–975.
  • United Nations Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
  • United Nations Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
  • Vaňo B., Bleha B., Divinský B., Jurčová D., Katerinková M., Mészáros J., Pilinská V., Šprocha B., Bugár B. (2013). Dynamic Historical Analysis of Longer Term Migratory, Labour Market and Human Capital Processes in Slovakia. Country report developed within the project ‘SEEMIG Managing Migration and Its Effects – Transnational Actions Towards Evidence Based Strategies.’ Online: http://www.seemig.eu/downloads/outputs/SEEMIGHistoricalAnalysisSlovakia.pdf (accessed: 3 March 2014).
  • Wilson C. (2001). On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950–2000. Population and Development Review 27(1): 155–171.
  • World Bank. (various years) World Development Indicators. Online: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators (accessed: 3 March 2014).
  • Zelinsky W. (1971). The Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition. Geographical Review 61(2): 219–249.
  • Zlotnik H. (1992). Empirical Identification of International Migration Systems, in: M. M. Kritz, L. L. Lim, H. Zlotnik (eds), International Migration Systems: A Global Approach, pp. 19–40. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-072c0b54-adfb-4709-8af8-e06a21c04338
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.