PL EN


2020 | vol. 64, nr 1 | 131-142
Article title

Testing the adaptive market hypothesis on the WIG Stock Index: 1994-2019

Authors
Content
Title variants
Testowanie hipotezy rynków adaptacyjnych dla indeksu giełdowego WIG: 1994-2019
Languages of publication
EN
Abstracts
EN
The adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) is gaining recognition in the world of science because it coherently and logically reconciles the opinions of representatives of the neoclassical school and of behaviourists. The article assesses the reasons for the application of this hypothesis in the context of the Polish stock market. The aim of the article is to examine the level of predictability of return rates of the main Polish stock exchange index. For this purpose, daily logarithmic return rates were applied from the WIG index from October 1994 to December 2019. Moreover, the occurrence between them of a linear dependence (an autocorrelation test) and non-linear dependence (BDS test) was verified for two-year rolling-window framework. The results obtained confirm the cyclical variability of the level of efficiency for the Polish stock market, which complies with the implications of the adaptive market hypothesis.
PL
Hipoteza rynków adaptacyjnych (AMH) ma coraz większe uznanie w świecie naukowym, gdyż w sposób spójny i logiczny godzi poglądy przedstawicieli szkoły neoklasycznej oraz behawiorystów. W artykule oceniono zasadność stosowania tej hipotezy w kontekście polskiego rynku akcji. Celem artykułu jest zbadanie poziomu przewidywalności stóp zwrotu głównego polskiego indeksu giełdowego. Wykorzystano dzienne logarytmiczne stopy zwrotu z indeksu WIG od października 1994 r. do grudnia 2019 r. i dla dwuletnich ruchomych podokresów zweryfikowano występowanie między nimi zależności liniowych (test autokorelacji) i nieliniowych (test BDS). Otrzymane wyniki potwierdzają cykliczną zmienność poziomu efektywności dla polskiego rynku akcji, co jest zgodne z implikacjami hipotezy rynków adaptacyjnych.
References
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Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-0a71a005-2a50-4ee0-a38b-6437b82cba07
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