FERTILITY LIFE TABLES BASED ON STOCHASTIC PROCESS
The paper presents a description of the construction methods used for fertility tables based on the staging process. Process under analysis is the female fertility in the generations from 1910 to 1986. Estimation was carried out on the basis of 261 247 sample from Female Fertility Survey 2002 carried out under National Censuss 2002 detailing the five age groups: 15-19, 20-24, ..., 45-49 and to the five year generations. Results of the estimation, i.e. staging probabilities, are presented in graphic form. Given that the upper age limit of the female reproductive age is 49 years, the stage probabilities presented in Figure 7 give the possibility of synthetic evaluation of stage probabilities for five-year generations. The biggest changes in the value of the stage probabilities related to the last two generations, that is, 1971-1975, 1976-1980 as the direct response on the socio-economic transformation period. Undoubtedly, these changes translate into changes in the size of nuclear-families model in Poland.
Zakład Analizy Historii Zdarzeń i Analiz Wielopoziomowych, Kolegium Analiz Ekono-micznych, SGH
Zakład Analizy Historii Zdarzeń i Analiz Wielopoziomowych, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych, SGH
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