2019 | vol. 63, nr 8 | 22-33
Article title

On the stability of public finance in an age of demographic changes

Title variants
O stabilności finansów publicznych w dobie zmian demograficznych
Languages of publication
The aim is to determine whether it is possible to achieve a permanent surplus of the social security funds subsector balance to improve the balance of the general government sector. Hypotheses: it is possible to achieve a permanent surplus of the balance of the social security funds subsector in certain macroeconomic conditions; current systemic solutions do not affect the lasting improvement of the balance of social security funds subsector. Model: A linear congruent dynamic model. Results: The balance of the social security funds subsector may be positive and its impact on public finance, favourable. This balance determines the scope and type of system solutions used, but also discretionary decisions. However, the balance changes are not permanent.
Celem badania jest ustalenie, czy możliwe jest uzyskanie trwałej nadwyżki salda sektora funduszy zabezpieczenia społecznego dla poprawy salda sektora finansów publicznych. Postawiono następujące hipotezy: możliwe jest uzyskanie trwałej nadwyżki salda sektora funduszy zabezpieczenia społecznego w określonych warunkach makroekonomicznych; obecne rozwiązania systemowe nie wpływają na trwałą poprawę salda funduszy zabezpieczenia społecznego. W badaniach zastosowano dynamiczny liniowy model zgodny. Stwierdzono, że saldo sektora funduszy zabezpieczenia społecznego może być dodatnie, a jego wpływ na stan finansów publicznych – korzystny. Saldo to determinuje zakres i rodzaj nie tylko stosowanych rozwiązań systemowych, ale także decyzji dyskrecjonalnych. Jednakże zmiany salda nie mają charakteru trwałego.
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