PL EN


2013 | 124 | 99-113
Article title

Metody budowy długoterminowych prognoz przedziałowych rozwoju nowych zjawisk

Content
Title variants
EN
The selected aspects of constructing long-term interval forecasts for the development of new phenomena
Languages of publication
PL
Abstracts
EN
With regard to a long horizon of the forecasts built, among others, for the needs of foresight deep changes should be expected in the area of the considered phenomenon. In this connection, the variability of the surrounding, i.e., economic, political, legal, social and technological situation as well as the natural environment should be taken into account in the process of creating a long-term forecast. This problem can be partially solved by means of constructing variant forecasts that take into consideration the adopted scenarios of the surrounding development. However, in such a case, we obtain merely point forecasts that, from the point of view of the construction of development scenarios, may be insufficient. The analysis should be enriched by means of forecast intervals, which would take into account the changes in the development of the considered phenomenon with regard to the change in the level of key factors. The purpose of the article is the presentation of the way to build long-term point forecasts that would take into consideration the changes in the surrounding of the analysed phenomenon. The author compares the intervals of forecasts obtained by means of standard forecast uncertainty, key factors aggregation and simulation analysis.
Year
Volume
124
Pages
99-113
Physical description
Contributors
References
  • Armstrong J.S., Collopy F.: Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting, w: G. Wright, P. Goodwin, Forecasting with Judgment, John Willey & Sons, New York 1998.
  • Dittmann P.: Prognozowanie w przedsiębiorstwie. Metody i ich zastosowanie, Oficyna Ekonomiczna, Kraków 2004.
  • Gogolewska (Poradowska) K.: Ocena dopuszczalności prognoz gospodarczych, Wrocław 2006 (praca doktorska).
  • Metody statystycznej analizy wielowymiarowej w badaniach marketingowych, red. E. Gatnar, M. Walesiak, Akademia Ekonomiczna, Wrocław 2004.
  • Pawłowski Z.: Prognozy ekonometryczne, PWN, Warszawa 1973.
  • Poradowska K.: Wybrane aspekty prognozowania wielkości sprzedaży nowych produktów, w: Modelowanie i prognozowanie gospodarki narodowej, Prace i Materiały Wydziału Zarządzania Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego nr 5/2007, Sopot 2007.
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
ISSN
2083-8611
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-1c4286c4-eb5e-4c57-86bc-a6b8fd39462a
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