2015 | 41(3)/2015 Stosunki Międzynarodowe | 103-121
Article title

Modelling the Gold Price in Turkish Free Market: Static Approach

Title variants
Determinanty cen złota na wolnym rynku tureckim: podejście statystyczne
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W artykule zanalizowano determinanty cen złota na wolnym rynku tureckim, z zastosowaniem technik klasycznej regresji liniowej. Dokonano modelowania ruchu cen złota, stosując dwa modele statyczne: prosty liniowy i wielomianowy trzeciego stopnia. Porównano dwa modele i wywnioskowano, że wielomianowy model regresji trzeciego stopnia lepiej pasował do naszych danych i ma większą moc wyjaśniającą niż prosty model liniowy. Co więcej, najistotniejszymi determinantami ceny złota w Turcji, jak się okazuje, jest produkcja kopalni złota, kurs wymiany dolara USA w stosunku do liry tureckiej i wskaźnik cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych (tur. TÜFE).
In this paper, we analyse the determinants of gold prices in the Turkish free market using classic linear regression techniques. We modelled the gold price movement using two static models, a simple linear and a polynomial of degree three. We compared two models and concluded that third degree polynomial regression model fitted our data better and has greater explanatory power than simple linear model. Furthermore the most significant determinants of the gold price in Turkey are found to be gold mine production, US dollar exchange rate against Turkish lira and the consumer price index (TÜFE).
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