PL EN


2015 | 41(3)/2015 Stosunki Międzynarodowe | 103-121
Article title

Modelling the Gold Price in Turkish Free Market: Static Approach

Authors
Content
Title variants
PL
Determinanty cen złota na wolnym rynku tureckim: podejście statystyczne
Languages of publication
PL EN
Abstracts
PL
W artykule zanalizowano determinanty cen złota na wolnym rynku tureckim, z zastosowaniem technik klasycznej regresji liniowej. Dokonano modelowania ruchu cen złota, stosując dwa modele statyczne: prosty liniowy i wielomianowy trzeciego stopnia. Porównano dwa modele i wywnioskowano, że wielomianowy model regresji trzeciego stopnia lepiej pasował do naszych danych i ma większą moc wyjaśniającą niż prosty model liniowy. Co więcej, najistotniejszymi determinantami ceny złota w Turcji, jak się okazuje, jest produkcja kopalni złota, kurs wymiany dolara USA w stosunku do liry tureckiej i wskaźnik cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych (tur. TÜFE).
EN
In this paper, we analyse the determinants of gold prices in the Turkish free market using classic linear regression techniques. We modelled the gold price movement using two static models, a simple linear and a polynomial of degree three. We compared two models and concluded that third degree polynomial regression model fitted our data better and has greater explanatory power than simple linear model. Furthermore the most significant determinants of the gold price in Turkey are found to be gold mine production, US dollar exchange rate against Turkish lira and the consumer price index (TÜFE).
References
  • Aksoy M., Topçu N. (2013), Relationship Between Gold, Stock and Inflation, “Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences”, No. 27(1), Atatürk University.
  • Aşarkaya A. (2013), The gold market in the world and in Turkey, Department of Economic Research, June, İş Bank.
  • Asteriou D., Hall S.G. (2011), Applied Econometrics, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Brooks Ch. (2008), Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge.
  • Cox J. (2007), The Concise Guide to Economics, 3rd Edition, Ludwig von Mises Institute.
  • Deveci D. (2013), Predicting Gold and Silver Spot Prices in Turkey, MSc Thesis, Middle East Technical University.
  • Erb C.B., Harvey C.R. (2013), The Golden Dilemma, May 4.
  • Greely D., Currie J. (2009), Forecasting Gold as a Commodity, “Global Economics Paper”, No. 183.
  • Gujarati D. (2011), Econometrics by Example, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Identification of Capital Markets Perception and Investment Potential Survey(2011), Official Report, April.
  • Jagerson J., Hansen W. (2011), All About Investing in Gold – The Easy Way to Get Started, McGraw Hill.
  • Levin E.J., Montagnoli A., Wright R.E. (2006), Short-run and long-run determinants of the price of gold, Project Report, World Gold Council.
  • Menase M. (2009), Gold Market and the Analysis of Factors Affecting the Gold Prices in Turkey.
  • Oxford Economics (2011), The impact of inflation and deflation on the case for gold, July.
  • Saleem H.A. (2006), Gold mining and the golden rule: a challenge for producers and consumers in developing countries, “Journal of Cleaner Production”, Vol. 14, Iss. 3-4.
  • Sefa M. (2013), An econometric analysis of gold prices in Turkey, MSc Thesis, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Street L. et al. (2014), Gold Demand Trends, Third quarter, World Gold Council.
  • Taşçı F.İ. (2010), An Econometric Analysis of Gold Market, MSc Thesis, Gazi University, Institute of Social Sciences, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Yılmaz L. (2013), An Application for the Effect of Global Financial Crisis on Spot and Future Gold Markets: Turkey Case.
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-1de4fc95-adda-4854-906a-516e4c2295f0
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.