PL EN


2015 | 1(8) | 43-70
Article title

Decyzje w obliczu „niepewnych ryzyk” – rola heurystyk i nurtu racjonalności adaptacyjnej

Selected contents from this journal
Title variants
EN
Decisions Under Unknown Risks – the Role of Heuristics and Ecological Rationality
Languages of publication
PL
Abstracts
EN
Heuristics used in financial decision process in polish and international papers are commonly linked to intuitive, automatic, habitual and consequently to irrational decisions. As presented in the paper, heuristics may become a very optimal decision strategy, especially from the decision’s environmental perspective. It is postulated to normalize this approach as ecological rationality in decision making theory. The aim of the paper is to present theoretical and practical arguments which support the following thesis: In the context of financialisation and financial development, heuristic approach to decision making may become the leading and optimal decision strategy. It is essential due to fact that heuristics have a high predictive and explanatory effectiveness as well as the number of practical applications.
Year
Issue
Pages
43-70
Physical description
Contributors
  • Uniwersytet Rzeszowski
References
  • Acharya, V., A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation, „Journal of Financial Stability”, 5, s. 224–256, 2009.
  • Alba, J.W., Marmorstein, H., The effect of frequency knowledge on consumer decision making, „Journal of Consumer Research”, 14, s. 14–26, 1987.
  • Altman, M., Implications of Behavioral Economics for Financial Literacy and Public Policy, „Journal of Socio-Economics”, 41(5), s. 677–690, 2012.
  • Antoszkiewicz, J., Metody heurystyczne, PWE, Warszawa 1990.
  • Axelrod, R., An evolutionary approach to norms, „American Political Science Review”, 80, s. 1095–1111, 1986.
  • Basel, J.S., Brühl, R., Rationality and dual process models of reasoning in managerial cognition and decision making, „European Management Journal”, 31, s. 745–754, 2013.
  • Bernstein, P.L., Przeciw bogom. Niezwykłe dzieje ryzyka, Wig Press, Warszawa 1997.
  • Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., The priority heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs, „Psychological Review”, 113, s. 409–432, 2006.
  • Bogacka-Kisiel, E. (red.), Finanse osobiste, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 2012.
  • Boyd, R., Richerson, P.J., The origin and evolution of cultures, Oxford University Press, New York 2005.
  • Brighton, H., Gigerenzer, G., How Heuristics handle Uncertainty, w: Todd, P.M., Gigerenzer, G. (red.), Ecological rationality (33–60), Oxford University Press, Oxford 2012.
  • Brunswik, E., The Conceptual Framework of Psychology, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 1952.
  • Brunswik, E., Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology, „Psychological Review”, 62, s. 193–217, 1955.
  • Bywalec, C., Ekonomika i finanse gospodarstw domowych, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 2009.
  • Chase, W.G., Simon, H.A., Perception in chess, „Cognitive Psychology”, 4, s. 55–81, 1973.
  • Cohen, J., Cohen, P.M., West, S.G., Aiken, L.S., Applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for behavioral sciences, Mahwah, Erlbaum, 2003.
  • DeMiguel, V., Garlappi, L., Uppal, R., Optimal versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1/N Portfolio Strategy?, „Journal of Finance Studies”, 22, s. 1915–1953, 2009.
  • Drexler, A, Fischer, G., Schoar, A., Keeping it Simple: Financial Literacy and Rules of Thumb, „American Economic Journal: Applied Economics”, 6(2), s. 1–31, 2014.
  • Evans, J.St.B.T., On the resolution of conflict in dual-process theories of reasoning, „Thinking & Reasoning”, 13, s. 321–329, 2007.
  • Evans, J.St.B.T., Thinking Twice: Two minds in one brain, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2010.
  • Evans, J.St.B.T., Over, D.E., Rationality and reasoning, Psychology Press, Hove 1996.
  • Finlayson, A., Financialisation, Financial Literacy and Asset-Based Welfare, „The British Journal of Politics and International Relations”, 11, s. 400–421, 2009.
  • Fishburn, P.C., Lexicographic orders, utilities and decision rules: A survey, „Management Science”, 20, s. 1442–1471, 1974.
  • Flejterski, S., Metodologia finansów. Podręcznik akademicki, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 2007.
  • Frederick, S., Loewenstein, G., O’Donoghue, T., Time discounting and time preference: A critical review, „Journal of Economic Literature’, 40, s. 351–401, 2002.
  • Frederick, S., Automated Choice Heurisitcs, w: Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., Kahneman, D. (red.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, s. 666–677, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2002.
  • Friedman, M., Savage, J.L., The utility analysis of choice involving risk, „Journal of Political Economy”, 56, s. 279–304, 1948.
  • Froud, J., Johal, S., Williams, K., Financialisation and the coupon pool, „Capital and Class”, 78, s. 119–151, 2002.
  • Gasparski, W., Projektowanie koncepcyjne. Przygotowanie, PWN, Warszawa 1978.
  • Gaspars-Wieloch, H., Ograniczona skuteczność metod optymalizacyjnych w rozwiązywaniu ekonomicznych problemów decyzyjnych, „Ekonomista”, 3, s. 303–324, 2012.
  • Geman, S., Bienenstock, E., Doursat, R., Neural Networks and the Bias/Variance Dilemma, „Neural Computation”, 4, s. 1–58, 1992.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Goldstein, D.G., Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality, „Psychological Review”, 103, s. 650–669, 1996.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P.M., Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2000.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Selten, R. (red.), Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox, MIT Press, Cambridge 2002.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Rationality for Mortals, Oxford University Press, New York 2008.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Brighton, H., Homo heuristicus: Why biased minds make better inferences, „Topics in Cognitive Science”, 1(1), s. 107–143, 2009.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Pachur T. (red.), Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2011.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Brighton, H., Homo heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences, w: Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Pachur, T., (red.), Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior, s. 8–30, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2011.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Fiedler, K., Olsson, H., Rethinking Cognitive Biases as Environmental Consequences, w: Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Pachur, T. (red.), Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior, s. 80–112, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2012.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Dieckmann A., Gaissmaier, W., Efficient Cognition Through limited Search, w: Todd, P.M., Gigerenzer, G. (red.), Ecological rationality, s. 241–273, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2012.
  • Gigerenzer, G., Risk Savvy. How to make good decisions, Viking Adult, New York 2015.
  • Gilboa, I., Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2009.
  • Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., Kahneman D., Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2002.
  • Glimcher, P.W., Fehr, E., Camerer, C., Poldrack R.A., Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain, Academic Press, London 2009.
  • Global Financial Development Report 2013: Rethinking the Role of the State in Finance, Washington 2014, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/11848/Global%20Financial%20Development%20Report%202013.pdf?sequence=1 (dostęp: 01.12.2014).
  • Goldstein, D.G., Gigerenzer, G., Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic, „Psychological Review”, 109(1), s. 75–0, 2002.
  • Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J., The Elements of Statistical Learning (second edition), Springer, New York 2009.
  • Hogarth, R.M., Educating intuition, University of Chicago Press, Chicago 2001.
  • Hogarth, R.M., When Simple is hart to accept, w: Todd, P.M., Gigerenzer, G. (red.), Ecological rationality, s. 61–80, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2012.
  • Hurwicz, I., A criterion for decision making under uncertainty, „Technical Reports”, 355, Cowles Commision 1952.
  • Hutchinson, J.M.C., Gigerenzer, G., Simple Heuristics and Rules of Thumb: where Psychologists and Behavioural Biologist Might Meet, w: Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Pachur, T. (red.), Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior, s. 108–133,
  • Oxford University Press, Oxford 2011.
  • Improving financial literacy: analysis of issues and policies, OECD Publishing, Washington 2005, www.oecd.org/finance/financial-education/37742200.pdf (dostęp: 01.12.2014).
  • Iwanicz-Drozdowska, M., Bezpieczeństwo rynku usług finansowych, Wydawnictwo SGH, Warszawa 2008.
  • Iwanicz-Drozdowska, M. (red.), Edukacja i świadomość finansowa, Wydawnictwo SGH, Warszawa 2011.
  • Jajuga, K., Nowe tendencje w zarządzaniu finansami osób indywidualnych, w: Karpuś, P., Węcławski, J. (red.), Rynek finansowy. Inspiracje z integracji europejskiej, Wydawnictwo UMCS, Lublin 2008.
  • Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness, „Cognitive Psychology”, 3(3), s. 430–454, 1972.
  • Kahneman, D., Tversky A., Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, „Econometrica”, 47(2), s. 263–291, 1979.
  • Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice, „Science”, 211, s. 453–458, 1981.
  • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., Tversky, A., Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristic and biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1982.
  • Kahneman, D., A perspective on judgment and choice. Mapping bounded rationality. „American Psychologist” 58: 697–720, 2003
  • Kahneman, D., Frederick, S., Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment, w: Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., Kahneman, D. (red.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, s. 49–81, Cambridge University
  • Press, Cambridge 2002.
  • Kahneman, D., Frederick, S., A model of heuristic judgment, w: Holyoak, K.J., Morrison, R. G. (red.), The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning, s. 267–293, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2005.
  • Kahneman, D., Klein, G., Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree, „American Psychologist”, 64, s. 515–526, 2009.
  • Kahneman, D., Thinking: Fast and Slow, Allan Lane, London 2011.
  • Klein, G., Sources of power: How people make decisions, MIT Press, Cambridge 1998.
  • Knight, F.H., Risk, Uncertainty, Profit, Hart. Schaffner & Marx, Houghton Mifflin Co., Boston 1921.
  • Korenik, D., Odpowiedzialność banku komercyjnego. Próba syntezy, Difin, Warszawa 2009.
  • Kotarbiński, T., Traktat o Dobrej Robocie, Zakład Narodowy im. Ossolińskich, Wrocław 1958.
  • Kotarbiński, T., Drogi dociekań własnych, PWN, Warszawa 1986.
  • Kozielecki, J., Psychologia procesów przeddecyzyjnych, PWN, Warszawa 1969.
  • Kozielecki, J., Psychologiczna teoria decyzji, PWN, Warszawa 1977.
  • Kozielecki, J., Psychologiczna teoria samowiedzy, PWN, Warszawa 1986.
  • Kruglanski, A.W., Gigerenzer, G., Intuitive and deliberative judgements are based on common principles, „Psychological Review”, 118, s. 97–109, 2011.
  • Kuchciak, I., Świeszczak, M., Świeszczak, K., Marcinkowska, M., Edukacja finansowa i inkluzja bankowa w realizacji koncepcji silver economy, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź 2014.
  • Lange, O., Optymalne decyzje, PWN, Warszawa 1964.
  • Lange, O., Wstęp do cybernetyki ekonomicznej, PWN, Warszawa 1965.
  • Lewicka-Strzałecka, A., Postawy praktyczne, Polska Akademia Nauk, Warszawa 1990.
  • Luce, R.D., Raiffa, H., Gry i decyzje, PWN, Warszawa 1964.
  • Luce, R.D., Fast, Frugal, and Surprisingly accurate heuristics, „Behavioral and Brain Sciences”, 23, s. 757–758, 2000.
  • Łukasik-Goszczyńska, M., Decyzje wielowymiarowe i strategie ich podejmowania, Zakład Narodowy Imienia Ossolińskich. Wydawnictwo Polskiej Akademii Nauk, Warszawa 1977.
  • Mandel M.J., The High Risk Society: Peril and Promise in the New Economy, Random House, New York 1996.
  • Mauboussin, M.J., The success equation, Harvard Business Review Press, Boston 2012.
  • Markowitz, H., Portfolio selection, „Journal of Finance”, 7, s. 77–91, 1952.
  • Miller, G.A., The magical number seven plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information, „Psychological Review”, 63, s. 81–97, 1956.
  • Miller, J.H., Page, S.E., Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life (Princeton Studies in Complexity), Princeton University Press, Princeton 2007.
  • Page, S.E., Hong, L., Problem Solving by Heterogeneous Agents, „Journal of Economic Theory”, 97, s. 123–163, 2001.
  • Piasecki, K., Decyzje i wiarygodne prognozy, Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu, Poznań 1990.
  • Pixley, J., The use of risk in understanding financial decisions and institutional uncertainty, „The Journal of Socio-Economics”, 39, s. 209–222, 2010.
  • Pietrzak, B., Polański, Z., Woźniak, B., System finansowy w Polsce. Wydanie drugie zmienione, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 2012.
  • Politser, P., Neuroeconomics: A Guide to the New Science of Making Choices, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2012.
  • Potocki, T., Skumulowana Teoria Perspektywy jako model pomiaru racjonalności ekonomicznej, „Ekonomia”, 31, s. 71–96, 2012.
  • Potocki, T., Opolski, K., Dualizm decyzyjny w podejmowaniu decyzji ryzykownych, „Ekonomika i Organizacja Przedsiębiorstwa”, 10(177), s. 3–18, 2014.
  • Reyna, V.F., Brainerd, C.J., Dual processes in decision making and developmental neuroscience: A fuzzy-trace model, „Developmental Review”, 31, s. 180–206, 2011.
  • Rieskamp, J., Dieckmann, A., Redundancy: Environment Structure That Simple Heuristics Can Exploit, w: Todd, P.M., Gigerenzer, G. (red.), Ecological rationality. Intelligence in the World, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2012, s. 215–273.
  • Rieskamp, J., Hoffrage, U., Inferences under time pressure: How opportunity costs affect strategy selection, „Acta psychologica”, 127, s. 258–276, 2008.
  • Rieskamp, J., Otto, P.E., SSL: theory of how people learn to select strategies, „Journal of Experimental Psychology: General”, 135, s. 207–236, 2006.
  • Savage L.J., The Foundations of Statistics, Willey, New York 1954.
  • Schooler, L.J. Hertwig, R., How forgetting aids heuristic inference, „Psychological Review”, 112, s. 610–628, 2005.
  • Schwartz, B., The paradox of Choice: Why more is less, Harper Perennial, New York 2005.
  • Shiller, R.J., Irrational Exuberance (second edition), Crown Business, New York 2005.
  • Simon, H. A., A behavioral model of rational choice, „Quarterly Journal of Economics”, 69, s. 99–118, 1955.
  • Simon, H.A., Rational choice and the structure of environments, „Psychological Review”, 63, s. 129–138, 1956.
  • Simon, H.A., The sciences of the artificial (second edition), MIT Press, Cambridge 1981.
  • Simon, H.A., Invariants of human behavior, „Annual Review of Psychology”, 41, s. 1–19, 1990.
  • Sloman, S.A., Two systems of reasoning, w: Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., Kahneman, D. (red.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, s. 379–397, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2002.
  • Smith, V.L., Behavioral economics research and the foundations of economics, „Journal of Socio-Economics”, 34, s. 135–150, 2005.
  • Stanovich, K.E., Who is rational? Studies of individual differences in reasoning, Lawrence Erlbaum, Mahwah 1999
  • Stanovich, K.E., Rationality and the Reflective Mind, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2011.
  • Stanovich, K.E., West, R.F., Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate, „Behavioral and Brain Sciences”, 23, s. 645–726, 2000.
  • Szopa, B. (red.), Wokół zagadnień ubóstwa i bogactwa, Wydawnictwo UEK, Kraków 2012.
  • Świecka, B., Bankructwa gospodarstw domowych. Perspektywa ekonomiczna i społeczna, Difin, Warszawa 2008.
  • Taleb, N., The Black Swan. The Impact of Highly Improbable, Random House, New York 2010.
  • Thaler, R.H., Sunstein, C.R., Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, Penguin Books, New York 2009.
  • Todd, P.M., Gigerenzer, G., Bounding rationality to the world, „Journal of Economic Psychology”, 24, s. 143–165, 2003.
  • Todd P.M., Gigerenzer, G., Ecological rationality. Intelligence in the world, Oxford University Press, Oxford 2012.
  • Tversky, A., Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice, „Psychological Review”, 79(4), s. 281–299, 1972.
  • Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability, „Cognitive Psychology”, 5, s. 207–232, 1973.
  • Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, „Science”, 184, s. 1124–1131, 1974.
  • Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., Evidential impact of base rates, w: Kahneman, D.P., Slovic, P., Tversky, A. (red.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, s. 152–160, Cambridge University Press, New York 1982.
  • Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., Rational choice and the framing of decisions, „Journal of Business”, 59(4), s. 251–278, 1986.
  • Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representations of Uncertainty, „Journal of Risk and Uncertainty”, 5, s. 297–323, 1992.
  • Tyszka, T., Analiza decyzyjna i psychologia decyzji, PWN, Warszawa 1986.
  • Tyszka, T., Psychologia Ekonomiczna, GWP, Gdańsk 2005.
  • Tyszka, T., Decyzje: perspektywa psychologiczna i ekonomiczna, Wydawnictwo Scholar, Gdańsk 2010.
  • Von Neumann, J., Morgenstern, O., Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, Princeton 1947.
  • Wald, A., Statistical decision functions, Wiley, New York 1950.
  • Zaleśkiewicz, T., Psychologia inwestora giełdowego, GWP, Gdańsk 2002.
  • Zaleśkiewicz, T., Psychologia ekonomiczna, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa2011.
  • Zielonka, P., Behawioralne aspekty inwestowania na rynku papierów wartościowych, CeDeWu, Warszawa 2006.
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-27820e6d-444c-4983-b7d0-a078deb63d0e
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.