External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?

• Authors: Adler Gustavo , Sosa Sebastian
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This paper develops a framework for debt sustainability analysis that integrates econometric estimates of the effect of global factors on a set of key domestic variables that determines public and external debt dynamics. The methodology is applied to assess debt sustainability in Latin America—a region highly sensitive to external conditions. Results suggest that, while some countries in the region are well placed to withstand moderate or even large foreign shocks, many would benefit from strengthening their fiscal positions to be able to deploy countercyclical policies under adverse scenarios, especially tail events. External sustainability, on the other hand, does not appear to be a source of concern for most countries.

Keywords

EN

public debt; external debt; debt sustainability; Latin America

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych
• Journal: Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
• Year: 2016
• Issue: 1(5)
• Pages: 81-120

Dates

online

2016-01-21

Contributors

author

Adler Gustavo

• International Monetary Fund, USA

author

Sosa Sebastian

• International Monetary Fund, USA

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Identifiers

ISSN

2353-6845

DOI

10.7172/2353-6845.jbfe.2016.1.4