2011 | 87: Zmiany aktywności gospodarczej w świetle wyników badań koniunktury | 87-115
Article title

Psychologiczne uwarunkowania nastrojów konsumentów i propozycja alternatywnego ich pomiaru

Title variants
Psychological factors of consumers’ sentiment, the alternative proposal of measurement
Languages of publication
W oparciu o wnioski z badań nad psychologicznymi uwarunkowaniami indeksów nastrojów konsumenckich, stworzona zostaje propozycja nowej formuły wskaźnika dobrobytu w oparciu o ilościowe dane statystki oficjalnej. Czynnikami ekonomicznymi mającymi decydujący wpływ na kształtowanie opinii konsumentów są: dochody, inflacja oraz zatrudnienie. Istotny dla kształtowania opinii konsumentów jest również sposób postrzegania przez człowieka tych kategorii ekonomicznych. Na kształtowanie opinii konsumentów większy wpływ wywierają zmiany zjawisk ekonomicznych niż ich poziomy. Ludzie nie dostrzegają zmian krótkookresowych. Asymetrycznie odbierają pozytywne i negatywne zmiany o tej samej wartości. Wnioski z badań prowadzą do konstrukcji Wskaźników Dobrobytu opartych na danych ilościowych statystyki oficjalnej. Zaprezentowano wskaźniki dla Polski, USA oraz Niemiec.
This paper proposes a well-being index based upon psychological research and official qualitative statistics. The main economic factors that influence the consumer confidence are: inflation, employment, and income. The way people perceive these economic categories is crucial in estimating the consumer confidence. For consumer confidence, the changes in economic categories are more important than their overall levels. People do not perceive the short term changes. The impact of change in the economic categories on consumer confidence is asymmetrical. Specifically, the same value of economic change has a different impact depending on whether the change is positive or negative. These conclusions lead to the construction of well-being indexes, which were tested for Poland, US and Germany.
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