20 years of NAFTA – trends in trade and the economic effects

• Authors: Kowalik Paweł
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This year marks the twentieth anniversary of the largest economic grouping in history, both in terms of surface area and the generated GDP – the North American Free Trade Agreement – NAFTA. The grouping was established on 1 January 1994, with the objective of gradually doing away with the existing tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its objectives and effects have long been under careful examination and subject to many analyses. Prognoses varied, from potentially significant benefits to anticipated losses, particularly for US economy. The paper is an attempt at presenting the twenty years of NAFTA operation, predominantly from the viewpoint of its impact on the trilateral trade exchange, unemployment, inflation, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of its member states. The analyses suggest that NAFTA has proved its effectiveness in generating trade revenues for all its members, most notably for Mexico. However, its effects on individual income and employment were found to be marginal or, at best, moderate.

Keywords

EN

NAFTA; economic integration; trade effects; cross-country comparative studies

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
• Journal: Ekonomia XXI Wieku
• Year: 2014
• Issue: 4(4)
• Pages: 46-63

Contributors

author

Kowalik Paweł

References

• Baer M.D., Fall 1991, North American Free Trade, ”Foreign Affairs”, vol. 70, Issue 4.
• FY 2002 Economic Outlook, Highlights From FY 1994 to FY 2001, FY 2002 Baseline Projections, 2001, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
• Hufbauer G.C., Cimino C., Moran T., May 2014, NAFTA at 20: Misleading Charges and Positive Achievements, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Number PB14-13, Washington, DC.
• Hufbauer G.C., Schott J.J., 1993, NAFTA An Assessment, revised edition, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
• Hufbauer G.C., Schott J.J., 2005, NAFTA Revisited. Achievements and Challenges, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
• International Trade Statistics 2004, Appendix tables, WTO, 2004 (electronic version).
• International Trade Statistics 2007, Appendix tables, WTO, 2007 (electronic version).
• International Trade Statistics 2010, Appendix tables, WTO, 2010 (electronic version).
• International Trade Statistics 2013, Appendix tables, WTO, 2013 (electronic version).
• Kamerschen D.R., McKenzie R.B., Nardinelli C., 1991, Ekonomia, Fundacja Gospodarcza NSZZ „Solidarność”, Gdańsk.
• Kukułka J., 1996, Historia współczesna stosunków międzynarodowych 1945-1996, ed. II, Wydawnictwo Naukowe SCHOLAR, Warszawa.
• Malinowski A., 1999, Trzy kraje – jedno partnerstwo, ,,Rynki Zagraniczne” nr 73.
• NAFTA at 20, March 2014, AFL-CIO, Washington, DC.
• NAFTA at Seven. Building on a North American Partnership, 2001, Office of the United States Trade Representative, www.ustr.gov, [access 12.08.2014].
• NAFTA’s 20-Year Legacy and the Fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, February 2014, Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, Washington, DC.
• NAFTA’s Impact on North America, 2004, ed. S. Weintraub, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
• Scott R.E., May 3, 2011, Heading South. U.S.-Mexico trade and job displacement after NAFTA, Economic Policy Institute Briefing Paper #308, Washington, DC.
• Shikher S., December 2012, Predicting the Effects of NAFTA: Now We Can Do It Better!, “Journal of International and Global Economic Studies” vol. 5(2).
• Shikher S., June 5-6, 2014, Predicting the Effects of NAFTA: Now We Can Do It Better!, paper presented at the conference “NAFTA at 20: Effects on the North American Market”, Dallas Fed, Houston.
• The Future of North American Trade Policy: Lessons from NAFTA, November 2009, Pardee Center Task Force Report, Boston University.
• The World Factbook 2013-14, 2013, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington, DC.
• Trade Update 2001. Second Annual Report on Canada’s State of Trade, May 2001, Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Ottawa.
• U.S. Chamber of Commerce, November 15, 2012, NAFTA TRIUMPHANT. Assessing Two Decades of Gains in Trade, Growth, and Jobs, www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/legacy/re-ports/1112_INTL_NAFTA_20Years.pdf, [access 8.08.2014].
• World Trade Report 2013, 2013, WTO Publication, WTO (electronic version).
• www.economia.gob.mx/trade-and-investment/foreign-trade/international-trade-negotiations, [access 8.08.2014].
• www.naftanow.org/facts, [access 8.07.2013].