Modele subiektywne w konstrukcji prognoz długookresowych

• Authors: Konstancja Poradowska

Title variants

EN

Subjective Models in the Design of Long-Term Forecasts

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

In the paper are presented some aspects of construction and practical use of subjective forecasting models. The main objective was to identify the usefulness of these models in the design of long-term forecasts and scenarios for the development of new technologies. Theoretical considerations are supplemented with real examples of data analysis, obtained in the study of foresight "zero carbon energy economy in a sustainable development of the Polish to 2050", conducted by the Central Mining Institute in Katowice.

Keywords

PL

Metody prognozowania; Modele ekonometryczne; Nowe technologie; Prognozowanie

EN

Econometric models; Forecasting; Forecasting methods; High-tech

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
• Journal: Studia Ekonomiczne
• Year: 2013
• Volume: 124
• Pages: 29-44

Contributors

author

Konstancja Poradowska

References

• Armstrong J.S., Collopy F.: Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting, w: G. Wright, P. Goodwin, Forecasting with Judgment, John Willey & Sons, New York 1998.
• Bass F.M. :A new product growth model for consumer durables, "Management Science" 1969, January.
• Cohen W.A.: The Practise of Marketing Management. Analysis, Planning and Implementation, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York 1991.
• Dittmann P.: Prognozowanie w przedsiębiorstwie. Metody i ich zastosowanie, Oficyna Ekonomiczna, Kraków 2004.
• Gardner E., Jr.: Forecast with No Data, "Lotus" 1991, Vol. 7, No. 6.
• Lilien G.L., Rangaswamy A.: Marketing Engineering: Computer-Assisted Marketing Analysis and Planning, Revised Second Edition, Trafford Publishing 2004.
• Little J.D.: Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus, "Management Science" 1970, Vol. 16, No. 8.
• Makridakis S., Wheelwright S.C., Hyndman R.J.: Forecasting: methods and applications, J. Wiley, New York 1998.
• Poradowska K.: Subjective Growth Models in Long-Term Forecasting the Development Technologies, Econometrics - Forecasting, Research Papers, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny, Wrocław 2011.
• Poradowska K.: Wybrane aspekty prognozowania sprzedaży nowych produktów, red. P. Miłobędzki, M. Szreder, Uniwersytet Gdański, Sopot 2011.
• Rogers E.M.: Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press, New York 1983.
• Russo E.J., Schoemaker P.J.: Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them, Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group 1989.
• Saunders J.: The specification of aggregate market models, "European Journal of Marketing" 1987, Vol. 21, No. 2.
• Shim J.K.: Strategic Business Forecasting, St. Lucie Press, New York 2000.
• Sokele M.: Growth models for the forecasting of new product market adoption, "Telektronik" 2008, No. 3/4.

Identifiers

ISSN

2083-8611