PL EN


2015 | 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty | 95-106
Article title

Quantification of expectations for general economic situation on the basis of industrial production index with data revisions

Authors
Title variants
Languages of publication
EN
Abstracts
EN
Use of appropriate data vintages and taking data revisions into account have only recently became a staple of applied econometric analysis. In this paper, the topic of data vintage in regression quantification procedures is readdressed for survey data on general economic situation. From empirical analysis it follows that quantification of survey data on general economic situation on the basis of industrial production index does not present a significant improvement over the use of response balance. Additionally, results obtained for real-time and end-of-sample data are very similar and do not suggest superiority of any of these two data vintages as far as quantification of survey data on general economic situation is concerned
Year
Pages
95-106
Physical description
Dates
published
2015
References
  • Anderson, O. (1952). The business test of the IFO-Institute for Economic Research, Munich, and its theoretical model, Revue de l’Institut International de Statistique, 20 (1), 1-17.
  • Arnold, E. A. (2013). The role of revisions and disagreement in professional forecasts, National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 153.
  • Chen, M.-H., Chen, S.-J., Kuo, Y.-C. (2007). The Critical Role of Monetary Policy in the Link between Business Conditions and Security Returns in Taiwan, Asia Pacific Management Review, 12 (1), 1-12.
  • Nardo, M. (2003). The quantification of qualitative survey data: A critical assessment, Journal of Economic Surveys, 17 (5), 645-668.
  • Thomas, D. G. (1995). Output expectations within manufacturing industry, Applied Economics, 27 (5), 403–408.
  • Tomczyk, E. (2008). Racjonalność oczekiwań polskich przedsiębiorców: reguła czy wyjątek? Wnioski z testu koniunktury IRG SGH, Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH, 80, 375-388.
  • Tomczyk, E. (2013). End-of-sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations, Prace i Materiały Inastytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH, 93, 45-69.
  • Tomczyk, E. (2014). Influence of data vintage on quantification of expectations, Department of Applied Econometrics Working Paper 14 04.
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
ISSN
0866-9503
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-55aea47a-6603-4662-ac17-de8ae6ff8ae8
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.