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PL EN


2016 | 4 | 23-31

Article title

Intensity of Intra-Industry Trade and Poland’s Susceptibility to Asymmetric Shocks

Content

Title variants

PL
Intensywność handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego a podatność Polski na szoki asymetryczne

Languages of publication

PL EN

Abstracts

PL
Celem artykułu jest ocena siły powiązań handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego (IIT) między Polską i krajami strefy euro oraz pozostałymi krajami unii gospodarczej i walutowej (UGW). Obliczone wskaźniki IIT stanowią podstawę oceny stopnia trwałości zbieżności cykli koniunkturalnych (i podatności na szoki asymetryczne) w Polsce i krajach partnerskich oraz stopnia przygotowania Polski do przyjęcia euro. Obliczeń dokonano przy użyciu standardowego indeksu Grubela-Lloyda, który mierzy udział handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego w handlu kraju ogółem. Analizę dla Polski przedstawiono na tle teoretycznych związków między integracją mone-tarną i wynikającym z niej wzrostem handlu a podatnością kraju na szoki asymetryczne. Wysoki wskaźnik IIT odzwierciedla rosnące podobieństwo cyklu ko-niunkturalnego Polski z cyklami krajów strefy euro i komplementarność polskiej gospodarki ze strukturą gospodarek strefy euro. Wynika z tego, że stopień synchronizacji cyklu koniunkturalnego nie wydaje się być w Polsce przeszkodą w przystąpieniu do strefy euro.
EN
This article aims to assess the strength of links of intra-industry trade (IIT) between Poland and the euro area and the other Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries. The computed IIT indices serve to evaluate the degree of sustainability of business cycle convergence (and susceptibility to asymmetric shocks) in Poland and its trading partners as well as Poland’s preparedness for the adoption of the euro. The calcula-tions were made with the use of the standard Grubel–Lloyd index, meas-uring the share of intra-industry trade in a country’s total trade. The sta-tistical analysis for Poland was presented against the backdrop of theo-retical relationships between monetary integration and the related trade growth and business cycle convergence. The high index of IIT reflects the increasing similarity of Poland’s business cycle with the euro area and the complementarity of the Polish economy with the economic structures of the euro area partners. Thus, the business cycle correlation does not seem to be an obstacle for Poland to join the euro area.

Year

Issue

4

Pages

23-31

Physical description

Dates

published
2016-07-2016-08

Contributors

  • Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw

References

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Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

ISSN
2084-2694

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.desklight-66c55c0e-9bb8-4fc9-b2d7-0076aa5ce994
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