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2015 | 2(5) | 25-37
Article title

TWO YEARS OF EUROMAIDAN AND STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE OF THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS

Authors
Content
Title variants
Languages of publication
EN
Abstracts
EN
Question of the future of Ukraine is globally important and requires answer before it is closed in order to be ready for final result. Ukrainian crisis has an internal and external dimension. First part of the article analyzes the consequences of Euromaidan. Two years is a period of time, which makes possible some preliminary conclusions about the development of Ukraine. It can be said that political and economic system of the country is deteriorating. At the same time disappointment of the people about the course of the state is growing. Therefore theory of expectations and reality discrepancy can be applied to predict the future of the today’s political regime in Kiev. The conclusion is that next social explosion (revolution) in Ukraine is highly possible in a short term, because unacceptable gap between expectations of Ukrainians and reality they live in has almost reached critical margin. Still situation in the country is strongly dependent on the position of two big external actors – the West (the United States and the European Union) and Russia. On the one hand, they stabilize the conflict – the West helps the government of Petro Poroshenko to survive politically and economically and manages social protest potential in the state; Russia supports separatists of Donbass, but holds them from further military aggression, accentuating implementation of Minsk deal. On the other hand, Ukraine definitely is a hostage of “great geopolitical game“ between Washington, Brussels and Moscow and is not a subject, but object in it. Strategic perspective of the Ukrainian crisis will depend on Russia‘s ability to survive economically and make the West believe it is better to retreat in Ukraine, on the American so called “hawks“ perception of this ability and on the damage they and the EU are ready to suffer from the Russian side. Supposed additional value of the article is that it tries to conceptualize (also theoretically) the current national and foreign situation of Ukraine and propose prognostic framework (the main variables) to predict its future.
Year
Volume
Pages
25-37
Physical description
Dates
published
2015-12-30
Contributors
author
  • Mykolas Romeris University
References
  • Focus-Economics.com
  • Interfax.com.ua
  • LiveLeak.com
  • Most-Dnepr.info
  • NewColdWar.org
  • Reporter-ua.ru
  • RFERL.org
  • Russia-Insider.com
  • TASS.ru
  • YouTube.com
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  • Davies J. C., The J-Curve of Rising and Declining Satisfactions as a Cause of Some Great Revolutions and a Contained Rebellion [in:] Violence in America: The History of Violence in America: Historical and Comparative Perspectives, ed. H.D. Graham, T.R. Gurr, New York 1969.
  • International observers will appeal to European Parliament with request to declare elections in Dnipropetrovsk invalid, Most-Dnepr.info, 16.11.2015, <http://most-dnepr.info/news/economics_eng/128339.htm> (16.11.2015).
  • No country in the world so rife with corruption in Ukraine, says Biden, Reporter-ua.ru 08.12.2015, <http://en.reporter-ua.ru/no-country-in-theworld-so-rife-with-corruption-in-ukraine-says-biden.html> (08.12.2015).
  • Questions Raised Over Poroshenko's Role In Valuable Kyiv Land Deal, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 13.05.2015, <http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-poroshenko-land-deal-questionstsars-village/27013945.html> (12.12.2015).
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  • Ukraine estimates potential losses of Russia’s food embargo at $600 mln in 2016, TASS.ru, 18.11.2015, <http://tass.ru/en/economy/837543> (18.11.2015).
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  • Ukraine’s Chief Anti-Corruption Official Fired after Uncovering Millions Stolen, Russia-Insider.com, 26.03.2015, <http://russiainsider.com/en/2015/03/26/5028> (26.03.2015).
Document Type
Publication order reference
Identifiers
YADDA identifier
bwmeta1.element.desklight-7a6cd069-3cc7-452d-b7d6-6ef725f1fdbc
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