Prediction of pork meat prices by selected methods as an element supporting the decision-making process

• Authors: ZIELIŃSKA-SITKIEWICZ Monika , CHRZANOWSKA Mariola
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Forecasts of economic processes can be determined using various methods, and each of them has its own characteristics and is based on specific assumptions. In the case of agriculture, forecasting is an essential element of efficient management of the entire farming process. The pork sector is one of the main agricultural sectors in the world. Pork consumption and supply are the highest among all types of meat, and Poland belongs to the group of large producers. The article analyses the price formation of class E pork, expressed in € per 100 kg of carcass, recorded from May 2004 to December 2019. The data comes from the Agri-food data portal. A creeping trend model with segments of linear trends of various lengths and the methodology of building ARIMA models are used to forecast these prices. The accuracy of forecasts is verified by forecasting ex post and ex ante errors, graphical analysis, and backcasting analysis. The study shows that both methods can be used in the prediction of pork prices.

Keywords

EN

agricultural sector; pork prices; forecast; creeping trend; ARIMA models

• Publisher: Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
• Journal: Operations Research and Decisions
• Year: 2021
• Volume: 31
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 137-152

Contributors

author

ZIELIŃSKA-SITKIEWICZ Monika

• Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, ul. Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland

author

CHRZANOWSKA Mariola

• Department of Econometrics and Statistics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW, ul. Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland

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Identifiers

DOI

10.37190/ord210307